TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Reznychenko vs Valeriy Melnik 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11910121191311––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:16 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Reznychenko above · Valeriy Melnik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 86 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Valeriy Melnik at 70.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Roman Reznychenko 80–152 Valeriy Melnik Roman Reznychenko has won 80 of their 232 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:16What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Melnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
80-152 in 232
Melnik
Wrong
gap of 72 in 232, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reznychenko 1498 vs Melnik 1690
Melnik
Wrong
both rated, 192 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reznychenko 20% vs Melnik 40%
Melnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reznychenko 30% vs Melnik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Reznychenko -4 · Melnik +1
Reznychenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Melnik) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReznychenko 3.25 / Melnik 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Melnik)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13202638
Reznychenko3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 97 of 299
Down 0–1, comes back13% 23 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 123
Melnik1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 124 of 200
Up 2–0, closes it100% 68 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it85% 93 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReznychenko4wins
AwayMelnik6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReznychenko100%3 of 3
AwayMelnik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reznychenko3Melnik7n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S2Reznychenko3Melnik7n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S3Reznychenko4Melnik6n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S4Reznychenko2Melnik4n = 6Melnik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricReznychenkoMelnikR − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.139.2−6.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReznychenkoMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 713 vs 383 / 68732.5%55.8%232 / 713 vs 383 / 687Avg sets wonper match1.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match33.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikReznychenko 3.25/Melnik 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.3%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Reznychenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 18:25R. Reznychenko4411128133V. Melnik3751011111
LSep 26 · 01:55R. Reznychenko30671251V. Melnik43111110113
LSep 13 · 19:25R. Reznychenko24104100V. Melnik351211123
WSep 12 · 17:25R. Reznychenko51119119113V. Melnik4591161182
LSep 12 · 00:55R. Reznychenko28571151V. Melnik4011117113
LSep 4 · 22:25R. Reznychenko2064100V. Melnik341111123
WAug 29 · 18:25R. Reznychenko46111112123V. Melnik377614101
LAug 28 · 23:55R. Reznychenko205870V. Melnik331111113
WAug 23 · 17:25R. Reznychenko541011146133V. Melnik551291211112
LAug 22 · 17:25R. Reznychenko143920V. Melnik331111113
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 27 · 17:55R. Reznychenko3.00119871Y. Masko1.3681111113LSep 27 · 16:25R. Reznychenko2.5061430R. Cherevko1.50111663LSep 27 · 14:55R. Reznychenko5.508970A. Tuzhylin1.131111113LSep 27 · 13:25R. Reznychenko2.2571111992E. Pismenniy1.57117911113WSep 26 · 20:25R. Reznychenko1.91111411113E. Pismenniy1.806121381WSep 26 · 18:25V. Melnik1.4051011111R. Reznychenko2.7511128133LSep 26 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.1312112R. Reznychenko5.501090WSep 26 · 15:25R. Reznychenko2.0014511103R. Cherevko1.731211681LSep 26 · 03:25R. Reznychenko2.208670E. Pismenniy1.611111113LSep 26 · 01:55R. Reznychenko2.75671251V. Melnik1.40111110113
V. Melnik10
WSep 27 · 18:25V. Melnik1.91111199113R. Cherevko1.8079111162LSep 27 · 17:25V. Melnik1.5711125692E. Pismenniy2.257101111113WSep 27 · 15:55V. Melnik1.731111103Y. Masko2.007770LSep 27 · 13:55V. Melnik2.201111581A. Tuzhylin1.6161311113LSep 26 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.611211113V. Melnik2.2010480LSep 26 · 18:25V. Melnik1.4051011111R. Reznychenko2.7511128133WSep 26 · 17:25V. Melnik1.9191411113R. Cherevko1.801112791LSep 26 · 15:55V. Melnik2.00911881Y. Masko1.7311911113WSep 26 · 13:55V. Melnik1.44111110113E. Pismenniy2.63981261WSep 26 · 01:55R. Reznychenko2.75671251V. Melnik1.40111110113
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