TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yevhen Masko vs Evgeniy Pismenniy 2-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 1
Set by set
11891111777––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:11 and never touched: 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeYevhen Masko to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYevhen Masko above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-7
Point 71 set 4, 7-7 · our read held Yevhen Masko at 68.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Yevhen Masko 151–78 Evgeniy Pismenniy Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 78 of their 229 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1168.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Masko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
151-78 in 229
Masko
Correct
gap of 73 in 229, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Masko 1688 vs Pismenniy 1579
Masko
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Masko 80% vs Pismenniy 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Masko 60% vs Pismenniy 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Masko +1 · Pismenniy +4
Pismenniy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Masko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pismenniy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMasko 1.444 / Pismenniy 2.625
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Masko)-0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13234967
Masko1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 141 of 209
Up 2–0, closes it99% 86 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it91% 114 of 126
Pismenniy2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog24% won 61 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back9% 13 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMasko7wins
AwayPismenniy3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMasko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMasko100%7 of 7
AwayPismenniy100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Masko7Pismenniy3n = 10Masko took 7 of 10
S2Masko7Pismenniy3n = 10Masko took 7 of 10
S3Masko7Pismenniy3n = 10Masko took 7 of 10
S4Masko0Pismenniy6n = 6Pismenniy took 6 of 6
S5Masko3Pismenniy0n = 3Masko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaskoPismenniyM − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.536.4+3.1per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaskoPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 733 vs 206 / 69657.6%29.6%422 / 733 vs 206 / 696Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaskoMasko 1.44/Pismenniy 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Masko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–1
Masko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 23:25Y. Masko5411121010113E. Pismenniy51910121282
WSep 27 · 19:55Y. Masko46114118123E. Pismenniy47911611102
WSep 26 · 16:55Y. Masko351311113E. Pismenniy2111550
LSep 25 · 21:55Y. Masko358116101E. Pismenniy4111711123
LSep 20 · 19:55Y. Masko396118141E. Pismenniy4611811163
WSep 19 · 19:55Y. Masko331111113E. Pismenniy269890
WSep 19 · 03:25Y. Masko341111123E. Pismenniy2899100
WSep 13 · 16:55Y. Masko331111113E. Pismenniy216780
LSep 12 · 17:55Y. Masko3541011101E. Pismenniy4211127123
WSep 11 · 23:25Y. Masko51129118113E. Pismenniy41101151142
Y. Masko10
LOct 3 · 16:25O. Dukhovenko3.4081112113Y. Masko1.301171081WOct 3 · 14:25R. Reznychenko3.252141151Y. Masko1.3311168113LOct 3 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311711113Y. Masko1.83911671WOct 3 · 02:55R. Reznychenko3.257146101Y. Masko1.33111211123WOct 3 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.101111117102Y. Masko1.67135911123WOct 2 · 23:25E. Pismenniy2.63910121282Y. Masko1.4411121010113LOct 2 · 21:25S. Hohenko1.911111113Y. Masko1.809980WSep 27 · 19:55Y. Masko1.50114118123E. Pismenniy2.50911611102WSep 27 · 17:55R. Reznychenko3.00119871Y. Masko1.3681111113LSep 27 · 16:55Y. Masko2.63771181A. Tuzhylin1.4411117113
E. Pismenniy10
WOct 3 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.50511671E. Pismenniy2.5011511113WOct 3 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.67891111113R. Reznychenko2.1011115202WOct 3 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.44711731E. Pismenniy2.6311911113WOct 3 · 00:25S. Hohenko1.33129981E. Pismenniy3.25101111113LOct 2 · 23:25E. Pismenniy2.63910121282Y. Masko1.4411121010113LOct 2 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44135118113E. Pismenniy2.63111141182LSep 27 · 19:55Y. Masko1.50114118123E. Pismenniy2.50911611102LSep 27 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.111113113E. Pismenniy6.0041190WSep 27 · 17:25V. Melnik1.5711125692E. Pismenniy2.257101111113LSep 27 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.501191011133E. Pismenniy2.50711127112
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