TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valeriy Melnik vs Evgeniy Pismenniy 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121161171113118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:24 and never touched: 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 100 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Valeriy Melnik at 64.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 144–87 Evgeniy Pismenniy Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 87 of their 231 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2464.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
144-87 in 231
Melnik
Correct
gap of 57 in 231, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1725 vs Pismenniy 1579
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 146 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 80% vs Pismenniy 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 70% vs Pismenniy 50%
Melnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +1 · Pismenniy +4
Pismenniy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Melnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pismenniy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.533 / Pismenniy 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Melnik)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234264
Melnik1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 121 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it99% 67 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it86% 92 of 107
Pismenniy2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog24% won 61 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back9% 13 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik5wins
AwayPismenniy5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik75%3 of 4
AwayPismenniy66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik4Pismenniy6n = 10Pismenniy took 6 of 10
S2Melnik4Pismenniy6n = 10Pismenniy took 6 of 10
S3Melnik5Pismenniy5n = 10split evenly
S4Melnik4Pismenniy4n = 8split evenly
S5Melnik3Pismenniy2n = 5Melnik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikPismenniyM − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.940.8−1.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime380 / 680 vs 206 / 69655.9%29.6%380 / 680 vs 206 / 696Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.53/Pismenniy 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 22:25V. Melnik48135118113E. Pismenniy45111141182
LSep 27 · 17:25V. Melnik4311125692E. Pismenniy507101111113
WSep 26 · 13:55V. Melnik43111110113E. Pismenniy35981261
LSep 25 · 23:55V. Melnik28711371E. Pismenniy3711411113
WSep 13 · 15:55V. Melnik41531111113E. Pismenniy4611118792
WSep 12 · 19:25V. Melnik49115119133E. Pismenniy49711911112
LSep 11 · 22:25V. Melnik43134111142E. Pismenniy51151159113
LSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik2410860E. Pismenniy341211113
WSep 4 · 23:55V. Melnik4071111113E. Pismenniy25115631
LAug 29 · 15:55V. Melnik30911100E. Pismenniy361113123
V. Melnik10
WOct 3 · 18:25V. Melnik1.83121162Y. Masko1.8310571WOct 3 · 15:55V. Melnik1.3311121273R. Reznychenko3.258141051LOct 3 · 13:55V. Melnik1.839790R. Cherevko1.831111113WOct 3 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311711113Y. Masko1.83911671WOct 3 · 01:55S. Hohenko1.8371080V. Melnik1.831112113WOct 3 · 00:55V. Melnik1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.255560WOct 2 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.8311611492V. Melnik1.83711911113WOct 2 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44135118113E. Pismenniy2.63111141182LSep 27 · 19:25R. Reznychenko3.25111011133V. Melnik1.339129111WSep 27 · 18:25V. Melnik1.91111199113R. Cherevko1.8079111162
E. Pismenniy10
LOct 3 · 15:25Y. Masko1.441191172E. Pismenniy2.63811771WOct 3 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.50511671E. Pismenniy2.5011511113WOct 3 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.67891111113R. Reznychenko2.1011115202WOct 3 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.44711731E. Pismenniy2.6311911113WOct 3 · 00:25S. Hohenko1.33129981E. Pismenniy3.25101111113LOct 2 · 23:25E. Pismenniy2.63910121282Y. Masko1.4411121010113LOct 2 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44135118113E. Pismenniy2.63111141182LSep 27 · 19:55Y. Masko1.50114118123E. Pismenniy2.50911611102LSep 27 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.111113113E. Pismenniy6.0041190WSep 27 · 17:25V. Melnik1.5711125692E. Pismenniy2.257101111113
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