TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valeriy Melnik vs Yevhen Masko 2-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 1
Set by set
121011567––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:14 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Yevhen Masko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-7
Point 51 set 3, 6-7 · our read held Valeriy Melnik at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 131–101 Yevhen Masko Yevhen Masko has won 101 of their 232 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1454.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Masko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
131-101 in 232
Melnik
Correct
gap of 30 in 232, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1732 vs Masko 1680
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 80% vs Masko 60%
Melnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 80% vs Masko 60%
Melnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +2 · Masko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Melnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.833 / Masko 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Melnik)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13235072
Melnik1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Masko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik5wins
AwayMasko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik83.3%5 of 6
AwayMasko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik6Masko4n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S2Melnik5Masko5n = 10split evenly
S3Melnik4Masko5n = 9Masko took 5 of 9
S4Melnik3Masko2n = 5Melnik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikMaskoMelnik − MaskoBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.634.9+1.7per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikMaskoBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 681 vs 422 / 73456%57.5%381 / 681 vs 422 / 734Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.83/Masko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–1
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 3 · 03:55V. Melnik4011711113Y. Masko33911671
LSep 26 · 15:55V. Melnik36911881Y. Masko4211911113
WSep 26 · 00:55V. Melnik341111123Y. Masko2578100
LSep 13 · 13:55V. Melnik4911991192Y. Masko48711118113
LSep 12 · 15:55V. Melnik36817110Y. Masko431119133
WSep 12 · 03:55V. Melnik331111113Y. Masko247980
LSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik381011891Y. Masko3612211113
WSep 5 · 03:55V. Melnik4111811113Y. Masko30711931
LAug 29 · 03:55V. Melnik226880Y. Masko331111113
V. Melnik10
WOct 3 · 17:25V. Melnik1.5310111111113E. Pismenniy2.3812671382WOct 3 · 15:55V. Melnik1.3311121273R. Reznychenko3.258141051LOct 3 · 13:55V. Melnik1.839790R. Cherevko1.831111113WOct 3 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311711113Y. Masko1.83911671WOct 3 · 01:55S. Hohenko1.8371080V. Melnik1.831112113WOct 3 · 00:55V. Melnik1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.255560WOct 2 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.8311611492V. Melnik1.83711911113WOct 2 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44135118113E. Pismenniy2.63111141182LSep 27 · 19:25R. Reznychenko3.25111011133V. Melnik1.339129111WSep 27 · 18:25V. Melnik1.91111199113R. Cherevko1.8079111162
Y. Masko10
LOct 3 · 16:25O. Dukhovenko3.4081112113Y. Masko1.301171081WOct 3 · 15:25Y. Masko1.441191172E. Pismenniy2.63811771WOct 3 · 14:25R. Reznychenko3.252141151Y. Masko1.3311168113LOct 3 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311711113Y. Masko1.83911671WOct 3 · 02:55R. Reznychenko3.257146101Y. Masko1.33111211123WOct 3 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.101111117102Y. Masko1.67135911123WOct 2 · 23:25E. Pismenniy2.63910121282Y. Masko1.4411121010113LOct 2 · 21:25S. Hohenko1.911111113Y. Masko1.809980WSep 27 · 19:55Y. Masko1.50114118123E. Pismenniy2.50911611102WSep 27 · 17:55R. Reznychenko3.00119871Y. Masko1.3681111113
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