TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Cherevko vs Yevhen Masko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114911119911116
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:19 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeYevhen Masko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Cherevko above · Yevhen Masko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 92 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Yevhen Masko at 54.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Roman Cherevko 97–155 Yevhen Masko Roman Cherevko has won 97 of their 252 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1954.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Masko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
97-155 in 252
Masko
Wrong
gap of 58 in 252, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cherevko 1735 vs Masko 1714
Cherevko
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cherevko 60% vs Masko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cherevko 50% vs Masko 70%
Masko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cherevko +1 · Masko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Masko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCherevko 2.00 / Masko 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Masko)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13239967
Cherevko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 61 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 54
Masko1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 144 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it99% 87 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it90% 117 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCherevko5wins
AwayMasko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCherevko80%4 of 5
AwayMasko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cherevko5Masko5n = 10split evenly
S2Cherevko6Masko4n = 10Cherevko took 6 of 10
S3Cherevko6Masko4n = 10Cherevko took 6 of 10
S4Cherevko2Masko3n = 5Masko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCherevkoMaskoC − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.235.9+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCherevkoMaskoBasisWin rate · lifetime379 / 730 vs 421 / 73151.9%57.6%379 / 730 vs 421 / 731Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaskoCherevko 2.00/Masko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Masko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cherevko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 3 · 20:25R. Cherevko34711881Y. Masko3711411113
LOct 3 · 01:25R. Cherevko501111117102Y. Masko50135911123
WSep 26 · 19:55R. Cherevko4312119113Y. Masko331091131
WSep 19 · 17:25R. Cherevko401613113Y. Masko34141190
LSep 19 · 00:25R. Cherevko32941181Y. Masko3611113113
WSep 12 · 14:25R. Cherevko46131111113Y. Masko401113971
LSep 12 · 01:25R. Cherevko2881190Y. Masko351113113
WSep 6 · 20:25R. Cherevko331111113Y. Masko229670
R. Cherevko10
WOct 4 · 14:25E. Pismenniy4.5031090R. Cherevko1.171112113LOct 3 · 20:25Y. Masko1.6711411113R. Cherevko2.10711881WOct 3 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.331111113E. Pismenniy3.259650LOct 3 · 16:55R. Reznychenko2.101611493R. Cherevko1.671461161WOct 3 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko3.4068100R. Cherevko1.301111123WOct 3 · 13:55V. Melnik1.839790R. Cherevko1.831111113WOct 3 · 03:25S. Hohenko2.0038121162R. Cherevko1.731111109113LOct 3 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.44711731E. Pismenniy2.6311911113LOct 3 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.101111117102Y. Masko1.67135911123LOct 2 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.8311611492V. Melnik1.83711911113
Y. Masko10
WOct 4 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko3.5051380Y. Masko1.281115113WOct 3 · 20:25Y. Masko1.6711411113R. Cherevko2.10711881LOct 3 · 18:25V. Melnik1.83121162Y. Masko1.8310571LOct 3 · 16:25O. Dukhovenko3.4081112113Y. Masko1.301171081WOct 3 · 15:25Y. Masko1.441191172E. Pismenniy2.63811771WOct 3 · 14:25R. Reznychenko3.252141151Y. Masko1.3311168113LOct 3 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311711113Y. Masko1.83911671WOct 3 · 02:55R. Reznychenko3.257146101Y. Masko1.33111211123WOct 3 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.101111117102Y. Masko1.67135911123WOct 2 · 23:25E. Pismenniy2.63910121282Y. Masko1.4411121010113
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