TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Hybl vs Vit Herrmann 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1175111517311––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:28 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Hybl to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Hybl above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 15-17
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 80 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Tomas Hybl at 58.1%
80 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hybl 1–0 Vit Herrmann Vit Herrmann has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2858.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 8.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hybl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hybl 1530 vs Herrmann 1579
Herrmann
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hybl 40% vs Herrmann 60%
Herrmann
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hybl 30% vs Herrmann 60%
Herrmann
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hybl -2 · Herrmann +3
Herrmann
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Hybl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Herrmann form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHybl 1.50 / Herrmann 2.50
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Hybl)-8.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234285
Hybl1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 29 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it81% 17 of 21
Herrmann2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 60 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back32% 18 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHybl1wins
AwayHerrmann0wins
Hybl leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHyblHerrmannHybl − HerrmannBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.024.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHyblHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 174 vs 216 / 43749.4%49.4%86 / 174 vs 216 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HyblHybl 1.50/Herrmann 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Hybl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Herrmann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WApr 3 · 11:30T. Hybl341211113V. Herrmann2410950
T. Hybl10
LSep 28 · 12:28J. Juppa1.83411119123T. Hybl1.83116611102LSep 28 · 11:30T. Hybl2.20911911L. Provaznik1.6111911113WSep 28 · 10:30T. Hybl2.2511611113M. Hajek1.57611371LSep 28 · 09:30T. Hybl1.57641191J. Juppa2.2511118113WSep 23 · 12:18L. Smazik1.807290T. Hybl1.911111113LSep 23 · 11:15T. Hybl2.2011101011102M. Svitac1.61712127123LSep 23 · 10:15T. Hybl1.83391571L. Smazik1.83111113113LSep 23 · 09:15T. Hybl1.671271591V. Lopata2.10101117113LSep 13 · 16:58D. Brichacek2.0011118113T. Hybl1.73851181WSep 13 · 15:15P. Maly2.004270T. Hybl1.731111113
V. Herrmann10
WOct 1 · 16:59V. Herrmann1.801111113O. Horak1.917830WOct 1 · 16:00V. Herrmann2.2011811113Z. Kuksa1.61911281WOct 1 · 14:30F. Kubos2.25116261V. Herrmann1.5781111113LOct 1 · 14:00O. Horak2.25411812113V. Herrmann1.57119111062LSep 26 · 13:09L. Stoces1.751111123V. Herrmann1.9598100WSep 26 · 11:30T. Hanke1.67513131032V. Herrmann2.1011111112113WSep 26 · 11:00V. Herrmann1.61111211113T. Bertho2.201310891LSep 26 · 10:00V. Herrmann2.00111261062L. Stoces1.737101112113LSep 21 · 20:53V. Herrmann1.837690L. Stoces1.831111113WSep 21 · 19:45F. Kubos2.2591111562V. Herrmann1.57117811113
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