TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Benak vs Michal Brozek 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511411115117112
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:48 and never touched: 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeJan Benak to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Benak above · Michal Brozek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 78 set 5, 11-2 · our read held Jan Benak at 66.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jan Benak 7–4 Michal Brozek Michal Brozek has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:4866.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 4.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Benak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Benak
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benak 1708 vs Brozek 1676
Benak
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benak 40% vs Brozek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benak 60% vs Brozek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benak +1 · Brozek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Benak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benak form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenak 1.40 / Brozek 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Benak)-4.7pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13230345
Benak1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 30 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Brozek2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 65 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenak6wins
AwayBrozek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBenak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenak80%4 of 5
AwayBrozek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benak5Brozek5n = 10split evenly
S2Benak7Brozek3n = 10Benak took 7 of 10
S3Benak6Brozek4n = 10Benak took 6 of 10
S4Benak4Brozek5n = 9Brozek took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenakBrozekBenak − BrozekBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.738.8+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenakBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 176 vs 517 / 99256.3%52.1%99 / 176 vs 517 / 992Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenakBenak 1.40/Brozek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Benak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Benak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 10:09J. Benak5291611972M. Brozek531114611113
LSep 3 · 07:25J. Benak346111071M. Brozek3811412113
LAug 20 · 12:20J. Benak4041112131M. Brozek4311314153
WJun 1 · 08:25J. Benak45116116113M. Brozek4031181172
WApr 27 · 06:55J. Benak4181111113M. Brozek33115981
WApr 16 · 15:20J. Benak381116113M. Brozek3081480
WFeb 12 · 08:25J. Benak4311812123M. Brozek3981110101
LNov 7 · 13:55J. Benak37138971M. Brozek44111111113
WSep 6 · 15:55J. Benak3961111113M. Brozek32116961
WJun 13 · 12:25J. Benak3811113133M. Brozek365911111
J. Benak10
WOct 2 · 07:55J. Benak1.801111911113V. Nadvornik1.9113811592LOct 2 · 06:55J. Benak1.83711691J. Kocab1.8311911113LSep 27 · 18:34P. Dvorak1.801111113J. Benak1.915740WSep 27 · 16:55M. Prochazka1.67127129112J. Benak2.1010111011133LSep 27 · 16:25P. Dvorak1.831111113J. Benak1.839780WSep 27 · 15:25J. Benak1.8331111113J. Kocab1.83118771LSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.7391080J. Benak2.001112113WSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113WSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak2.631210113143D. Bochnak1.441012811122
M. Brozek10
LOct 2 · 08:25J. Kocab1.4411116113M. Brozek2.63371161LOct 2 · 07:25M. Brozek2.3891060V. Nadvornik1.531112113WSep 30 · 17:53P. Dvorak2.108070M. Brozek1.671111113LSep 30 · 16:20M. Brozek1.5371131172P. Dvorak2.38118118113WSep 30 · 15:20M. Brozek1.731111113D. Hyza2.009550WSep 30 · 14:20M. Brozek1.838121011113P. Benes1.83111012872WSep 26 · 22:28M. Brozek1.53111184113P. Dvorak2.3888111132LSep 26 · 21:25M. Prochazka1.6111911113M. Brozek2.20411691WSep 26 · 20:25M. Brozek2.5091311123A. Kosacky1.5011112101WSep 26 · 18:55P. Dvorak1.832260M. Brozek1.831111113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Brozek
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