TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Brozek vs Petr Dvorak 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118118811411113
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · Petr Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 86 set 5, 11-3
86 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 2–1 Petr Dvorak Petr Dvorak has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Brozek beat Dvorak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Brozek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 1.53 / Dvorak 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Brozek)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13203891
Brozek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 143 of 250
Up 2–0, closes it85% 80 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it77% 111 of 145
Dvorak2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBrozek2wins
AwayDvorak1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBrozek leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek1Dvorak2n = 3Dvorak took 2 of 3
S2Brozek2Dvorak1n = 3Brozek took 2 of 3
S3Brozek1Dvorak2n = 3Dvorak took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricBrozekDvorakB − DBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match36.331.0+5.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime523 / 1005 vs 27 / 5952%45.8%523 / 1005 vs 27 / 59Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekBrozek 1.53/Dvorak 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 26 · 18:55M. Brozek331111113P. Dvorak102260
WJul 2 · 15:25M. Brozek48713611113P. Dvorak48111111872
LNov 4 · 02:20M. Brozek2881190P. Dvorak351113113
M. Brozek10
LSep 26 · 21:25M. Prochazka1.6111911113M. Brozek2.20411691WSep 26 · 20:25M. Brozek2.5091311123A. Kosacky1.5011112101WSep 26 · 18:55P. Dvorak1.832260M. Brozek1.831111113LSep 22 · 18:23M. Brozek2.10118101182P. Vanek1.67811128113WSep 22 · 17:25P. Vanek1.8081030M. Brozek1.911112113WSep 22 · 16:25M. Brozek2.201111113A. Kosacky1.619550WSep 22 · 14:55D. Hyza2.10911114122M. Brozek1.67114611143LSep 22 · 13:35J. Kocab1.441111113M. Brozek2.632630LSep 22 · 12:50P. Benes1.8313121011123M. Brozek1.831114129102LSep 22 · 11:50M. Brozek2.3831171182J. Kocab1.53117115113
P. Dvorak10
WSep 26 · 20:55P. Dvorak1.6771111113A. Kosacky2.10118671WSep 26 · 19:55P. Dvorak1.80118411113M. Prochazka1.9161111792LSep 26 · 18:55P. Dvorak1.832260M. Brozek1.831111113LAug 26 · 16:55M. Kulisek1.7391111113P. Dvorak2.00119481WAug 26 · 16:25D. Hyza2.2069111182P. Dvorak1.61111145113LAug 26 · 15:25P. Dvorak1.831111111192O. Fiklik1.83613813113WJul 30 · 17:59P. Dvorak1.7311811113M. Prochazka2.00411541LJul 30 · 17:25P. Dvorak2.5013980D. Vesecky1.501511113WJul 30 · 15:55M. Prochazka1.73101141342P. Dvorak2.001271111113LJul 30 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.401111113P. Dvorak2.754510
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