TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Benak vs Jan Kocab 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119611911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:52 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Benak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Benak above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Jan Benak at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jan Benak 13–13 Jan Kocab Dead even across their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5254.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kocab
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-13 in 26
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benak 1696 vs Kocab 1692
Benak
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benak 40% vs Kocab 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benak 60% vs Kocab 40%
Benak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benak -1 · Kocab -3
Kocab
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Benak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenak 1.833 / Kocab 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benak)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13229936
Benak1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kocab1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenak5wins
AwayKocab5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenak100%3 of 3
AwayKocab71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benak3Kocab7n = 10Kocab took 7 of 10
S2Benak6Kocab4n = 10Benak took 6 of 10
S3Benak6Kocab4n = 10Benak took 6 of 10
S4Benak3Kocab7n = 10Kocab took 7 of 10
S5Benak4Kocab2n = 6Benak took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenakKocabB − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.444.3−2.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenakKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 175 vs 133 / 28256%47.2%98 / 175 vs 133 / 282Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenakBenak 1.83/Kocab 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Benak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kocab won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 06:55J. Benak33711691J. Kocab4211911113
WSep 27 · 15:25J. Benak3631111113J. Kocab33118771
WSep 3 · 07:55J. Benak42113115123J. Kocab49811911102
LAug 18 · 06:55J. Benak35811881J. Kocab4211911113
WAug 7 · 12:55J. Benak49117117133J. Kocab43711311112
LAug 6 · 14:09J. Benak31941171J. Kocab3911116113
WAug 6 · 11:55J. Benak511112511123J. Kocab48514118102
LJul 10 · 14:35J. Benak50611111482J. Kocab51118516113
WJul 10 · 13:25J. Benak42411115113J. Kocab4811891192
LJul 1 · 10:40J. Benak45101171162J. Kocab48127117113
J. Benak10
LSep 27 · 18:34P. Dvorak1.801111113J. Benak1.915740WSep 27 · 16:55M. Prochazka1.67127129112J. Benak2.1010111011133LSep 27 · 16:25P. Dvorak1.831111113J. Benak1.839780WSep 27 · 15:25J. Benak1.8331111113J. Kocab1.83118771LSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.7391080J. Benak2.001112113WSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113WSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak2.631210113143D. Bochnak1.441012811122LSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113
J. Kocab10
LOct 1 · 14:03J. Kocab1.40411111052D. Vesecky2.75116712113LOct 1 · 12:55J. Kocab3.0081030M. Cerny1.361112113LOct 1 · 11:55J. Kocab3.409910D. Bochnak1.301111113WOct 1 · 10:55J. Kocab1.44471111113D. Vesecky2.6311117272WSep 27 · 18:04J. Kocab1.61111111113M. Prochazka2.20851381LSep 27 · 17:25J. Kocab2.20691161P. Dvorak1.6111115113WSep 27 · 15:55M. Prochazka1.80118471J. Kocab1.9161111113LSep 27 · 15:25J. Benak1.8331111113J. Kocab1.83118771WSep 25 · 09:58J. Kocab1.331111104113D. Vesecky3.2598121192LSep 25 · 08:55J. Kocab3.2511109101M. Cerny1.3341211123
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