TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Anton Veliiev vs Adam Duch 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811911118114811
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:46 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Duch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
811911118114811
H2H Anton Veliiev 6–10 Adam Duch Anton Veliiev has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:4654.0%Our read56.2%to break even at 1.78
short by 2.2pp56.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.78 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (52%)
Duch
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Duch
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Veliiev 1693 vs Duch 1693
Duch
Correct
both rated, 0 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Veliiev 60% vs Duch 80%
Duch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Veliiev 70% vs Duch 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Veliiev +1 · Duch +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Duch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Duch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeliiev 1.93 / Duch 1.78
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Duch)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13229054
Veliiev1.93
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog52% won 11 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back27% 3 of 11
Duch1.78
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 107 of 172
Up 2–0, closes it96% 64 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it77% 78 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVeliiev2wins
AwayDuch8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDuch leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeliiev50%2 of 4
AwayDuch100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Veliiev4Duch6n = 10Duch took 6 of 10
S2Veliiev3Duch7n = 10Duch took 7 of 10
S3Veliiev3Duch7n = 10Duch took 7 of 10
S4Veliiev1Duch4n = 5Duch took 4 of 5
S5Veliiev1Duch2n = 3Duch took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeliievDuchV − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.039.1−7.1per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeliievDuchBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 241 vs 433 / 72458.9%59.8%142 / 241 vs 433 / 724Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DuchVeliiev 1.93/Duch 1.78
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Duch · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Duch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 11 · 19:05A. Veliiev4711712982A. Duch474111011113
LApr 10 · 22:30A. Veliiev134540A. Duch331111113
LApr 10 · 18:00A. Veliiev196580A. Duch331111113
LApr 9 · 18:30A. Veliiev3711441172A. Duch46911114113
LMar 21 · 13:35A. Veliiev368511121A. Duch4211116143
LMar 20 · 19:30A. Veliiev238690A. Duch331111113
WMar 19 · 18:30A. Veliiev411315133A. Duch351113110
LFeb 19 · 23:10A. Veliiev341011581A. Duch3912511113
LFeb 19 · 18:30A. Veliiev2482140A. Duch381111163
WFeb 18 · 15:00A. Veliiev46111176113A. Duch4599111152
A. Veliiev10
WOct 1 · 15:00A. Veliiev1.2513121113113B. Gola3.70151011582LOct 1 · 14:00A. Veliiev1.65117111592P. Odelski2.10911517113WSep 27 · 12:38J. Krupnik1.6757110A. Veliiev2.101111133WSep 27 · 12:10A. Veliiev2.251111113J. Travnicek1.577750LSep 27 · 10:40F. Chaloupka1.7311127133A. Veliiev2.0041011111LSep 27 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.61751111113A. Veliiev2.2011114472WSep 27 · 09:10A. Veliiev2.001711113D. Stusek1.7315360WSep 27 · 08:10A. Veliiev2.001411113A. Kanak1.7312480WSep 27 · 06:40J. Skalicky1.53951171A. Veliiev2.3811119113WSep 27 · 06:10D. Stusek1.611191081A. Veliiev2.2091112113
A. Duch10
WOct 1 · 16:00K. Zapala3.354830A. Duch1.281111113LOct 1 · 15:30A. Duch1.5811811582P. Odelski2.25511811113WSep 13 · 14:35M. Szymanski2.208490A. Duch1.601111113WSep 13 · 12:05A. Duch1.3411119113B. Bartosz3.00571151WSep 13 · 10:35A. Duch1.661111113D. Bucko2.056870WSep 13 · 09:05A. Duch1.711111113K. Guzy2.003790WSep 13 · 07:05A. Duch1.34111210113K. Zapala2.858101291LSep 13 · 06:05A. Duch1.9013690M. Szymanski1.801511113WSep 12 · 20:45B. Bartosz2.759870A. Duch1.401111113LSep 12 · 18:05K. Zapala2.8011614113A. Duch1.365111291
Upcoming Matches
A. Veliiev
A. Duch
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