TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Martynenko vs Pavlo Melnichuk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
14161113911––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:19 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timePavlo Melnichuk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Pavlo Melnichuk @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingOleh Martynenko above · Pavlo Melnichuk below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 74 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Pavlo Melnichuk at 54.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Martynenko 2–4 Pavlo Melnichuk Oleh Martynenko has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 08:1954.9%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 5.1pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Melnichuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Melnichuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martynenko 871 vs Melnichuk 932
Melnichuk
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martynenko 60% vs Melnichuk 80%
Melnichuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martynenko 50% vs Melnichuk 80%
Melnichuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martynenko +1 · Melnichuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Melnichuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnichuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartynenko 2.10 / Melnichuk 1.666
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Melnichuk)-5.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228882
Martynenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 18 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back15% 5 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Melnichuk1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 69 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMartynenko2wins
AwayMelnichuk4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderMelnichuk leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartynenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMelnichuk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martynenko2Melnichuk4n = 6Melnichuk took 4 of 6
S2Martynenko3Melnichuk3n = 6split evenly
S3Martynenko3Melnichuk3n = 6split evenly
S4Martynenko2Melnichuk1n = 3Martynenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricMartynenkoMelnichukMartynenko − MelnichukBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match36.036.3−0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartynenkoMelnichukBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 322 vs 108 / 19445.3%55.7%146 / 322 vs 108 / 194Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelnichukMartynenko 2.10/Melnichuk 1.67
Hit
What we said
54.9%
Melnichuk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Pavlo Melnichuk @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
0–3
Melnichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LOct 1 · 11:55O. Martynenko2912890P. Melnichuk361411113
LAug 18 · 10:25O. Martynenko268990P. Melnichuk331111113
LAug 17 · 18:25O. Martynenko4391112382P. Melnichuk511181011113
LAug 15 · 04:25O. Martynenko4281141182P. Melnichuk47117117113
WJul 23 · 04:25O. Martynenko4311911123P. Melnichuk307112101
WJul 22 · 13:25O. Martynenko331111113P. Melnichuk219480
O. Martynenko10
LOct 2 · 10:25O. Martynenko1.44811861B. Pyrtyk2.6311611113WOct 2 · 07:25O. Martynenko2.20111110113I. Fokin1.61981231LOct 2 · 05:55O. Martynenko1.616380O. Bolnyh2.201111113LOct 2 · 04:25O. Martynenko1.836111161Y. Shcherbak1.8311313113WOct 1 · 17:55O. Martynenko2.50911119113I. Fokin1.5011751182WOct 1 · 16:25O. Martynenko1.1711611113M. Senyk4.50911861LOct 1 · 14:55O. Martynenko1.83106131142Y. Shcherbak1.831211117113WOct 1 · 13:25O. Martynenko1.67121111123O. Bolnyh2.101468101LOct 1 · 11:55O. Martynenko1.8012890P. Melnichuk1.911411113WSep 22 · 10:55O. Martynenko1.7311512113Y. Shcherbak2.009111091
P. Melnichuk10
WOct 2 · 07:55P. Melnichuk1.8311811113O. Bolnyh1.83711531WOct 2 · 06:55B. Pyrtyk2.501711031P. Melnichuk1.5019911113LOct 2 · 05:25P. Melnichuk3.40101151162I. Fokin1.30123115113WOct 1 · 18:25M. Senyk4.50611491P. Melnichuk1.1711711113WOct 1 · 17:25O. Bolnyh1.6711881162P. Melnichuk2.10511119113LOct 1 · 15:55I. Fokin1.30141210113P. Melnichuk3.4012101261WOct 1 · 13:55Y. Shcherbak1.61139941P. Melnichuk2.20111111113WOct 1 · 11:55O. Martynenko1.8012890P. Melnichuk1.911411113WAug 30 · 10:55V. Sydorchuk2.2596131182P. Melnichuk1.571111118113WAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113
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