TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Lukianevych vs Hennadii Buianover 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210118911911118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:21 and never touched: 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeValerii Lukianevych to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Lukianevych above · Hennadii Buianover below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 100 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Valerii Lukianevych at 62.4%
100 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Lukianevych 80–38 Hennadii Buianover Hennadii Buianover has won 38 of their 118 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2162.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.8pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lukianevych
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
80-38 in 118
Lukianevych
Correct
gap of 42 in 118, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lukianevych 1249 vs Buianover 1262
Buianover
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lukianevych 0% vs Buianover 60%
Buianover
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lukianevych 20% vs Buianover 50%
Buianover
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lukianevych -5 · Buianover +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Lukianevych) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Buianover form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLukianevych 1.533 / Buianover 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Lukianevych)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223582
Lukianevych1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 71 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it97% 38 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it84% 52 of 62
Buianover2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 44 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLukianevych7wins
AwayBuianover3wins
Lukianevych leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLukianevych80%4 of 5
AwayBuianover40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lukianevych5Buianover5n = 10split evenly
S2Lukianevych7Buianover3n = 10Lukianevych took 7 of 10
S3Lukianevych8Buianover2n = 10Lukianevych took 8 of 10
S4Lukianevych4Buianover3n = 7Lukianevych took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLukianevychBuianoverL − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.230.9+5.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLukianevychBuianoverBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 408 vs 159 / 39049.5%40.8%202 / 408 vs 159 / 390Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LukianevychLukianevych 1.53/Buianover 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Lukianevych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lukianevych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 13:05V. Lukianevych3741111113H. Buianover27117541
LSep 16 · 15:05V. Lukianevych32711591H. Buianover3711411113
WSep 13 · 13:05V. Lukianevych4111811113H. Buianover32711591
WSep 9 · 14:35V. Lukianevych44111111113H. Buianover31137381
WSep 2 · 12:35V. Lukianevych341211113H. Buianover2510780
WSep 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych331111113H. Buianover258980
LAug 30 · 17:55V. Lukianevych32761181H. Buianover4111118113
WAug 27 · 15:05V. Lukianevych331111113H. Buianover206860
LAug 12 · 16:05V. Lukianevych35119691H. Buianover3961111113
WAug 10 · 15:35V. Lukianevych4181111113H. Buianover32116691
V. Lukianevych10
LOct 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych1.83118881A. Azarov1.8381111113LOct 1 · 12:35V. Lukianevych2.2073140R. Serhyenko1.611111163LSep 22 · 18:35A. Sydorenko1.50111911113V. Lukianevych2.5081111592LSep 22 · 17:35V. Lukianevych2.109640V. Reva1.671111113LSep 22 · 16:35V. Lukianevych2.1011711342R. Serhyenko1.67711711113WSep 22 · 15:05V. Lukianevych1.301111133M. Karelov3.4062110WSep 22 · 13:05V. Lukianevych1.5041111113H. Buianover2.50117541LSep 16 · 17:35V. Lukianevych2.006680V. Reva1.731111113LSep 16 · 16:35V. Lukianevych1.73712111272V. Leonov2.001114110113LSep 16 · 15:05V. Lukianevych1.50711591H. Buianover2.5011411113
H. Buianover10
WOct 1 · 14:35H. Buianover4.501211113R. Serhyenko1.1710750WOct 1 · 13:35V. Reva1.73711014102H. Buianover2.001181112123WSep 22 · 19:35V. Reva1.83111215482H. Buianover1.8313101311113LSep 22 · 18:05H. Buianover4.007690R. Serhyenko1.221111113LSep 22 · 16:05M. Karelov2.101111113H. Buianover1.675380WSep 22 · 14:05A. Sydorenko1.288911121H. Buianover3.5011117143LSep 22 · 13:05V. Lukianevych1.5041111113H. Buianover2.50117541WSep 16 · 19:05H. Buianover4.5011119113V. Leonov1.17961191LSep 16 · 17:05A. Sydorenko1.28122811113H. Buianover3.50101111942WSep 16 · 15:05V. Lukianevych1.50711591H. Buianover2.5011411113
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