TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Wollny vs Michal Chalupa 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Michal Wollny
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412117117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:42 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Wollny to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Wollny above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 62 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Michal Wollny at 58.9%
62 points played in total.
H2H Michal Wollny 2–1 Michal Chalupa Michal Chalupa has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4258.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Wollny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wollny 1652 vs Chalupa 1706
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wollny 0% vs Chalupa 60%
Chalupa
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wollny 20% vs Chalupa 50%
Chalupa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wollny -8 · Chalupa -2
Wollny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Wollny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWollny 1.571 / Chalupa 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Wollny)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222718
Wollny1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite49% won 25 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it70% 19 of 27
Chalupa2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 73 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back24% 21 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeWollny2wins
AwayChalupa1wins
Wollny leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wollny2Chalupa1n = 3Wollny took 2 of 3
S2Wollny2Chalupa1n = 3Wollny took 2 of 3
S3Wollny3Chalupa0n = 3Wollny took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricWollnyChalupaW − CBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match32.022.7+9.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWollnyChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 215 vs 399 / 75251.6%53.1%111 / 215 vs 399 / 752Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WollnyWollny 1.57/Chalupa 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Wollny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Wollny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 30 · 19:30M. Wollny30481171M. Chalupa3811115113
WJan 3 · 18:30M. Wollny331111113M. Chalupa114610
WJan 3 · 16:30M. Wollny331111113M. Chalupa196580
M. Wollny10
LSep 30 · 20:58R. Hudeczek2.38411511123M. Wollny1.53117118102LSep 30 · 20:00M. Wollny1.529580R. Hudeczek2.351111113LSep 30 · 19:30M. Chalupa3.7511115113M. Wollny1.25481171LSep 30 · 18:00M. Wollny1.536511101D. Szotek2.3811119123LSep 3 · 21:00V. Burdik2.00111411113M. Wollny1.73516781LSep 3 · 20:00M. Wollny2.20661181M. Kratochvil1.6111118113LSep 3 · 19:30R. Urbaniec2.6311911113M. Wollny1.44911781LSep 3 · 18:00M. Wollny1.7361111852V. Burdik2.00119711113WSep 1 · 21:28M. Wollny1.731011911113V. Burdik2.0012711882WSep 1 · 20:00M. Wollny1.6111118113R. Urbaniec2.20941171
M. Chalupa10
LOct 1 · 19:00M. Chalupa1.83166841R. Hudeczek1.83141111113LSep 30 · 21:28D. Szotek1.801111113M. Chalupa1.913980LSep 30 · 20:30D. Szotek2.10111311113M. Chalupa1.67515951WSep 30 · 19:30M. Chalupa3.7511115113M. Wollny1.25481171WSep 30 · 18:30R. Hudeczek1.911110891M. Chalupa1.8091211113WSep 28 · 20:59M. Chalupa1.6711119123T. Kypr2.107911101LSep 28 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.44911531D. Szotek2.6311911113WSep 28 · 19:30T. Kypr2.0010118121M. Chalupa1.7312911143LSep 28 · 18:00M. Chalupa1.5311124652M. Holub2.388101111113WSep 26 · 21:00M. Chalupa1.4011115113Z. Pagac2.75971181
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