TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anton Danylov vs Serhii Honcharenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11910129111171113
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:08 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Danylov above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 104 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 79.4%
104 points played in total.
H2H Anton Danylov 2–6 Serhii Honcharenko Anton Danylov has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:08What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Honcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Honcharenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danylov 1062 vs Honcharenko 1314
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 252 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danylov 40% vs Honcharenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danylov 30% vs Honcharenko 50%
Honcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Danylov -3 · Honcharenko -2
Danylov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Honcharenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanylov 3.75 / Honcharenko 1.25
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Honcharenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13202076
Danylov3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 24)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 27 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Honcharenko1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 25)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 99 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it87% 81 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeDanylov2wins
AwayHoncharenko6wins
1 of 8 to a deciderHoncharenko leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanylov66.7%2 of 3
AwayHoncharenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danylov3Honcharenko5n = 8Honcharenko took 5 of 8
S2Danylov4Honcharenko4n = 8split evenly
S3Danylov2Honcharenko6n = 8Honcharenko took 6 of 8
S4Danylov2Honcharenko3n = 5Honcharenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricDanylovHoncharenkoD − HBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match30.835.2−4.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanylovHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 134 vs 432 / 84132.1%51.4%43 / 134 vs 432 / 841Avg sets wonper match1.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.936.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoDanylov 3.75/Honcharenko 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJul 19 · 15:00A. Danylov204790S. Honcharenko331111113
WJun 14 · 06:00A. Danylov331111113S. Honcharenko196760
LJun 7 · 06:00A. Danylov186750S. Honcharenko331111113
LMay 1 · 17:09A. Danylov32751191S. Honcharenko3911116113
LMay 1 · 15:00A. Danylov28811271S. Honcharenko3811511113
WMar 29 · 16:30A. Danylov3711114113S. Honcharenko27271171
LMar 1 · 06:00A. Danylov29135381S. Honcharenko44111111113
LFeb 13 · 14:00A. Danylov4981661182S. Honcharenko491114112113
A. Danylov10
WSep 27 · 13:30A. Danylov1.80811118123O. Levytskyi1.91118811102LSep 24 · 15:30R. Sveshnykov1.30119911113A. Danylov3.4051111772LSep 24 · 14:30A. Danylov1.67111011542V. Hyriavyi2.10512811113LSep 24 · 13:30O. Badanin1.5011116113A. Danylov2.50741171WSep 24 · 12:30A. Danylov1.83711911113O. Levytskyi1.8311511842WSep 20 · 16:59V. Matviichuk1.44117691A. Danylov2.6371111113LSep 20 · 16:30A. Lysyi1.671111113A. Danylov2.105860LSep 20 · 15:00A. Danylov2.7571590V. Matviichuk1.401117113WSep 20 · 13:30A. Danylov2.001113113V. Hyriavyi1.7331190LSep 20 · 12:00A. Danylov1.91461171S. Zherykhin1.8011117113
S. Honcharenko10
LSep 27 · 14:30O. Levytskyi2.25121182S. Honcharenko1.57109101LSep 27 · 13:00R. Sveshnykov1.67111111113S. Honcharenko2.10137281LSep 25 · 10:58V. Matviichuk2.25111011113S. Honcharenko1.57712481LSep 25 · 09:30V. Saakian1.4011121112113S. Honcharenko2.7591471452WSep 25 · 08:00S. Honcharenko1.1411114123V. Khyzhnyak5.009611101WSep 25 · 06:30S. Honcharenko1.281111113V. Hyriavyi3.507880WSep 25 · 05:00S. Honcharenko1.5314662V. Matviichuk2.38121131LSep 24 · 10:38S. Honcharenko3.4061211682M. Pohorilyi1.301110911113WSep 24 · 08:30I. Sorochan2.63811931S. Honcharenko1.4411511113WSep 24 · 07:30S. Honcharenko1.831411113M. Zavoloka1.8312670
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