TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Mishchenko vs Ivan Demchenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118811811811––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:57 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeIvan Demchenko to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Ivan Demchenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Ivan Demchenko at 57.4%
76 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mishchenko 5–16 Ivan Demchenko Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:57What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Demchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-16 in 21
Demchenko
Correct
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1591 vs Demchenko 1642
Demchenko
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 20% vs Demchenko 60%
Demchenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 40% vs Demchenko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko -2 · Demchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Demchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mishchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 2.10 / Demchenko 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Demchenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13196286
Mishchenko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 25)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 87 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back13% 18 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 73
Demchenko1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 25)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite72% won 44 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMishchenko2wins
AwayDemchenko8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDemchenko leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko40%2 of 5
AwayDemchenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko5Demchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Mishchenko4Demchenko6n = 10Demchenko took 6 of 10
S3Mishchenko4Demchenko6n = 10Demchenko took 6 of 10
S4Mishchenko3Demchenko5n = 8Demchenko took 5 of 8
S5Mishchenko1Demchenko4n = 5Demchenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMishchenkoDemchenkoM − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.941.5−3.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoDemchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime491 / 1053 vs 71 / 16146.6%44.1%491 / 1053 vs 71 / 161Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DemchenkoMishchenko 2.10/Demchenko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Demchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Demchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 18:55O. Mishchenko39114101222I. Demchenko517111210113
WSep 13 · 21:55O. Mishchenko331111113I. Demchenko217950
LSep 11 · 17:25O. Mishchenko378111171I. Demchenko3911134113
LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko4497111162I. Demchenko43111155113
LAug 20 · 00:25O. Mishchenko50711121192I. Demchenko501113105113
LAug 19 · 00:55O. Mishchenko2612770I. Demchenko361411113
LAug 16 · 21:55O. Mishchenko28118631I. Demchenko4181111113
LAug 13 · 16:55O. Mishchenko27411391I. Demchenko3911611113
LAug 12 · 23:25O. Mishchenko48111271352I. Demchenko569101115113
WAug 6 · 03:55O. Mishchenko47111168113I. Demchenko3964111172
O. Mishchenko10
LSep 25 · 19:55Y. Kryvorotko1.22581114113O. Mishchenko4.00111191252LSep 25 · 18:55I. Demchenko1.577111210113O. Mishchenko2.25114101222WSep 25 · 17:25O. Dukhovenko1.67111012111O. Mishchenko2.1081214133LSep 25 · 15:25O. Gavryshko1.44111211113O. Mishchenko2.63714861LSep 25 · 13:25A. Chepurnyi1.571111113O. Mishchenko2.256860WSep 21 · 03:25O. Mishchenko3.001111113O. Gavryshko1.365690WSep 21 · 01:55O. Mishchenko1.9111116113P. Plakushchyi1.80891171LSep 21 · 00:25O. Mishchenko2.631181171A. Chepurnyi1.4471113113WSep 20 · 22:55O. Mishchenko2.101111113M. Smyrnov1.679870LSep 20 · 21:25O. Mishchenko2.50681171O. Dukhovenko1.5011116113
I. Demchenko10
LSep 25 · 20:25O. Gavryshko1.301111113I. Demchenko3.408990WSep 25 · 18:55I. Demchenko1.577111210113O. Mishchenko2.25114101222LSep 25 · 16:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4071111113I. Demchenko2.75111441WSep 25 · 14:55A. Chepurnyi1.447511121I. Demchenko2.6311113143WSep 25 · 13:55O. Dukhovenko1.22521171I. Demchenko4.0011116113LSep 14 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi1.4481111113I. Demchenko2.63119661LSep 14 · 02:55I. Demchenko1.577760P. Plakushchyi2.251111113LSep 14 · 00:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.505560LSep 13 · 22:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4051111123I. Demchenko2.751194101LSep 13 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.501111113I. Demchenko1.507950
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