TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115116119––––
Oleg Gavryshko
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:06 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeOleg Gavryshko to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Oleg Gavryshko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 53 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Oleg Gavryshko at 67.7%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mishchenko 32–56 Oleg Gavryshko Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 32 of their 88 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Gavryshko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-56 in 88
Gavryshko
Wrong
gap of 24 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1601 vs Gavryshko 1799
Gavryshko
Wrong
both rated, 198 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 40% vs Gavryshko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 30% vs Gavryshko 60%
Gavryshko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko +1 · Gavryshko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Gavryshko) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gavryshko form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 3.00 / Gavryshko 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Gavryshko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13162052
Mishchenko3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 87 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back12% 17 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 78
Gavryshko1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 79 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it96% 43 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it83% 66 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMishchenko3wins
AwayGavryshko7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGavryshko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko100%3 of 3
AwayGavryshko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko3Gavryshko7n = 10Gavryshko took 7 of 10
S2Mishchenko4Gavryshko6n = 10Gavryshko took 6 of 10
S3Mishchenko7Gavryshko3n = 10Mishchenko took 7 of 10
S4Mishchenko3Gavryshko5n = 8Gavryshko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMishchenkoGavryshkoM − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.137.8+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoGavryshkoBasisWin rate · lifetime499 / 1064 vs 341 / 62246.9%54.8%499 / 1064 vs 341 / 622Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GavryshkoMishchenko 3.00/Gavryshko 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72%
Gavryshko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 03:25O. Mishchenko331111113O. Gavryshko205690
LSep 20 · 24:55O. Mishchenko33781171O. Gavryshko4111118113
LSep 18 · 16:55O. Mishchenko511010111192O. Gavryshko43121244113
LSep 13 · 24:55O. Mishchenko30591151O. Gavryshko4011117113
LSep 11 · 19:55O. Mishchenko371011971O. Gavryshko4212811113
WSep 7 · 03:25O. Mishchenko44111011123O. Gavryshko314125101
LSep 4 · 19:55O. Mishchenko34591191O. Gavryshko3511112113
LAug 30 · 03:25O. Mishchenko4991111992O. Gavryshko50118911113
WAug 28 · 19:55O. Mishchenko3811124113O. Gavryshko367101181
LAug 17 · 03:25O. Mishchenko32137120O. Gavryshko401511143
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 21 · 01:55O. Mishchenko1.9111116113P. Plakushchyi1.80891171LSep 21 · 24:25O. Mishchenko2.631181171A. Chepurnyi1.4471113113WSep 20 · 22:55O. Mishchenko2.101111113M. Smyrnov1.679870LSep 20 · 21:25O. Mishchenko2.50681171O. Dukhovenko1.5011116113LSep 20 · 03:55O. Mishchenko2.6381111742A. Chepurnyi1.44115311113WSep 20 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko1.50891181O. Mishchenko2.5011119113LSep 20 · 24:55O. Mishchenko3.00781171O. Gavryshko1.3611118113LSep 19 · 23:55Y. Kryvorotko1.22711713113O. Mishchenko4.00119111172LSep 19 · 22:25O. Mishchenko2.25771151M. Smyrnov1.5711116113LSep 18 · 20:25Y. Kryvorotko1.2291111113O. Mishchenko4.00116331
O. Gavryshko10
LSep 21 · 02:25O. Gavryshko1.8312050A. Chepurnyi1.831411113LSep 21 · 01:25O. Gavryshko2.6314111772O. Dukhovenko1.441211911113WSep 20 · 23:55O. Gavryshko1.44116812113P. Plakushchyi2.63311111062WSep 20 · 21:54O. Gavryshko1.7311119113M. Smyrnov2.00751131LSep 20 · 04:25M. Smyrnov2.00111195113O. Gavryshko1.7397111182WSep 20 · 02:55O. Gavryshko1.835111011113A. Chepurnyi1.8311812582WSep 20 · 24:55O. Mishchenko3.00781171O. Gavryshko1.3611118113WSep 19 · 22:55O. Dukhovenko1.44111115962O. Gavryshko2.63581711113LSep 19 · 21:55Y. Kryvorotko1.8011713213O. Gavryshko1.9171111191WSep 18 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.40911914113P. Plakushchyi2.75117111282
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