TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Demchenko vs Oleksandr Mishchenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71111412101012112
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeIvan Demchenko to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Demchenko above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 90 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Ivan Demchenko at 60.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Demchenko 15–5 Oleksandr Mishchenko Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:18What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Demchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-5 in 20
Demchenko
Correct
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Demchenko 1658 vs Mishchenko 1624
Demchenko
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Demchenko 40% vs Mishchenko 60%
Mishchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Demchenko 30% vs Mishchenko 50%
Mishchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Demchenko -1 · Mishchenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Demchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mishchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDemchenko 1.57 / Mishchenko 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Demchenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13191433
Demchenko1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 43 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Mishchenko2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 87 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back12% 17 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDemchenko8wins
AwayMishchenko2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDemchenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDemchenko100%6 of 6
AwayMishchenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Demchenko6Mishchenko4n = 10Demchenko took 6 of 10
S2Demchenko6Mishchenko4n = 10Demchenko took 6 of 10
S3Demchenko5Mishchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Demchenko6Mishchenko2n = 8Demchenko took 6 of 8
S5Demchenko3Mishchenko1n = 4Demchenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDemchenkoMishchenkoD − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.037.2+3.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDemchenkoMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 159 vs 491 / 105144%46.7%70 / 159 vs 491 / 1051Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DemchenkoDemchenko 1.57/Mishchenko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Demchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Demchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 21:55I. Demchenko217950O. Mishchenko331111113
WSep 11 · 17:25I. Demchenko3911134113O. Mishchenko378111171
WSep 6 · 23:55I. Demchenko43111155113O. Mishchenko4497111162
WAug 20 · 00:25I. Demchenko501113105113O. Mishchenko50711121192
WAug 19 · 00:55I. Demchenko361411113O. Mishchenko2612770
WAug 16 · 21:55I. Demchenko4181111113O. Mishchenko28118631
WAug 13 · 16:55I. Demchenko3911611113O. Mishchenko27411391
WAug 12 · 23:25I. Demchenko569101115113O. Mishchenko48111271352
LAug 6 · 03:55I. Demchenko3964111172O. Mishchenko47111168113
WAug 5 · 02:55I. Demchenko4611159113O. Mishchenko324131141
I. Demchenko10
LSep 25 · 16:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4071111113I. Demchenko2.75111441WSep 25 · 14:55A. Chepurnyi1.447511121I. Demchenko2.6311113143WSep 25 · 13:55O. Dukhovenko1.22521171I. Demchenko4.0011116113LSep 14 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi1.4481111113I. Demchenko2.63119661LSep 14 · 02:55I. Demchenko1.577760P. Plakushchyi2.251111113LSep 14 · 00:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.505560LSep 13 · 22:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4051111123I. Demchenko2.751194101LSep 13 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.501111113I. Demchenko1.507950LSep 11 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.28111183I. Demchenko3.503540WSep 11 · 18:25I. Demchenko2.631111812113A. Chepurnyi1.4484111492
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 25 · 17:25O. Dukhovenko1.67111012111O. Mishchenko2.1081214133LSep 25 · 15:25O. Gavryshko1.44111211113O. Mishchenko2.63714861LSep 25 · 13:25A. Chepurnyi1.571111113O. Mishchenko2.256860WSep 21 · 03:25O. Mishchenko3.001111113O. Gavryshko1.365690WSep 21 · 01:55O. Mishchenko1.9111116113P. Plakushchyi1.80891171LSep 21 · 00:25O. Mishchenko2.631181171A. Chepurnyi1.4471113113WSep 20 · 22:55O. Mishchenko2.101111113M. Smyrnov1.679870LSep 20 · 21:25O. Mishchenko2.50681171O. Dukhovenko1.5011116113LSep 20 · 03:55O. Mishchenko2.6381111742A. Chepurnyi1.44115311113WSep 13 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.501111113I. Demchenko1.507950
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