TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Zbigniew Sobkow vs Michal Paszkiewicz 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111113711––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Sobkow to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Michal Paszkiewicz below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 62 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Zbigniew Sobkow at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 4–2 Michal Paszkiewicz Michal Paszkiewicz has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:51What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sobkow
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Sobkow
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1313 vs Paszkiewicz 1389
Paszkiewicz
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 40% vs Paszkiewicz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 30% vs Paszkiewicz 50%
Paszkiewicz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow +1 · Paszkiewicz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sobkow)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 1.73 / Paszkiewicz 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sobkow)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13188917
Sobkow1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 33 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it64% 23 of 36
Paszkiewicz2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 80 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back20% 22 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSobkow4wins
AwayPaszkiewicz2wins
4 of 6 to a deciderSobkow leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobkow75%3 of 4
AwayPaszkiewiczn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobkow4Paszkiewicz2n = 6Sobkow took 4 of 6
S2Sobkow5Paszkiewicz1n = 6Sobkow took 5 of 6
S3Sobkow3Paszkiewicz3n = 6split evenly
S4Sobkow0Paszkiewicz5n = 5Paszkiewicz took 5 of 5
S5Sobkow3Paszkiewicz1n = 4Sobkow took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSobkowPaszkiewiczS − PBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match42.542.3+0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowPaszkiewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime53 / 111 vs 427 / 79747.8%53.6%53 / 111 vs 427 / 797Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowSobkow 1.73/Paszkiewicz 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Paszkiewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 12 · 13:30Z. Sobkow4311411982M. Paszkiewicz49711911113
LSep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow347111061M. Paszkiewicz4111712113
WAug 21 · 14:20Z. Sobkow52111496123M. Paszkiewicz539121111102
WAug 21 · 08:10Z. Sobkow44811113113M. Paszkiewicz4711881192
WJun 19 · 11:00Z. Sobkow49141176113M. Paszkiewicz48126111182
WJun 19 · 04:55Z. Sobkow331111113M. Paszkiewicz168620
Z. Sobkow10
WSep 25 · 03:50S. Juzek1.8331060Z. Sobkow1.831112113LSep 13 · 13:55A. Cichocki1.4011611113Z. Sobkow2.75711881WSep 13 · 13:05S. Szostok1.44117118192Z. Sobkow2.63611311213LSep 13 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.63116791W. Wojtaszczyk1.4481111113LSep 13 · 10:35Z. Sobkow2.1011115332J. Wieczerzak1.67991111113LSep 13 · 09:50M. Lach1.441111123Z. Sobkow2.6347100LSep 13 · 08:35Z. Sobkow2.25128981W. Wojtaszczyk1.57101111113WSep 13 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.3891111113S. Szostok1.53116751LSep 13 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.381177111M. Lach1.5391111133LSep 13 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.7511611952A. Cichocki1.40511311113
M. Paszkiewicz10
LSep 25 · 05:15R. Idaczyk1.801211113M. Paszkiewicz1.9110790WSep 25 · 03:00P. Gumulinski1.61614100M. Paszkiewicz2.201116123WSep 23 · 08:20M. Sikon2.0010590M. Paszkiewicz1.731211113LSep 23 · 07:35M. Lebek1.501111113M. Paszkiewicz2.358680LSep 23 · 05:35R. Idaczyk1.901111113M. Paszkiewicz1.768550LSep 23 · 04:50P. Adamus1.681112113M. Paszkiewicz2.0571080WSep 23 · 03:10I. Szymanski2.501220M. Paszkiewicz1.461111113WSep 23 · 02:20M. Sikon1.70716861M. Paszkiewicz2.00111411113WSep 23 · 01:35M. Lebek1.4291090M. Paszkiewicz2.481112113LSep 22 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.571411113M. Paszkiewicz2.2512840
Upcoming Matches
Z. Sobkow
Sep 25 · 06:05Z. Sobkow2.10K. Jablonski1.67—Sep 25 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.20P. Gumulinski1.61—Sep 25 · 07:45Z. Sobkow2.00R. Idaczyk1.73—Sep 25 · 09:00Z. Sobkow1.73M. Paszkiewicz2.00—Sep 25 · 10:10Z. Sobkow—R. Idaczyk——Sep 25 · 11:50Z. Sobkow—S. Juzek——Sep 25 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.20P. Gumulinski1.61—Sep 25 · 14:40Z. Sobkow—K. Jablonski——
M. Paszkiewicz
Sep 25 · 07:20M. Paszkiewicz1.83K. Jablonski1.83—Sep 25 · 08:10M. Paszkiewicz1.61S. Juzek2.20—Sep 25 · 09:00M. Paszkiewicz2.00Z. Sobkow1.73—Sep 25 · 10:35M. Paszkiewicz2.25P. Gumulinski1.57—Sep 25 · 11:25M. Paszkiewicz1.91R. Idaczyk1.80—Sep 25 · 13:30M. Paszkiewicz—K. Jablonski——Sep 25 · 14:20M. Paszkiewicz1.61S. Juzek2.20—
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