TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Tazler vs Richard Wagner 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Jakub Tazler
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
13117111012911––
Richard Wagner
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:58 and never touched — 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeJakub Tazler to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Tazler above · Richard Wagner below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 84 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Tazler at 58.4%
84 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Tazler 7–4 Richard Wagner Richard Wagner has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Tazler beat Wagner 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Tazler
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Tazler
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tazler 1669 vs Wagner 1670
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tazler 80% vs Wagner 60%
Tazler
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tazler 60% vs Wagner 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tazler +3 · Wagner +2
Tazler
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Tazler)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTazler 1.60 / Wagner 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Tazler)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13187475
Tazler1.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 76 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it80% 60 of 75
Wagner2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 32 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back22% 7 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTazler6wins
AwayWagner4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTazler leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTazler100%5 of 5
AwayWagner80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tazler5Wagner5n = 10split evenly
S2Tazler5Wagner5n = 10split evenly
S3Tazler7Wagner3n = 10Tazler took 7 of 10
S4Tazler2Wagner3n = 5Wagner took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTazlerWagnerT − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.033.1+0.9per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTazlerWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 729 vs 117 / 22054.6%53.2%398 / 729 vs 117 / 220Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TazlerTazler 1.60/Wagner 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.3%
Tazler · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 23:30J. Tazler331111113R. Wagner237880
LSep 17 · 09:28J. Tazler3631111111R. Wagner4311136133
WSep 17 · 08:00J. Tazler3951112113R. Wagner351171071
WSep 14 · 01:30J. Tazler341112113R. Wagner2591060
WAug 25 · 12:00J. Tazler521110119113R. Wagner4561281182
LAug 25 · 08:30J. Tazler1734100R. Wagner341111123
WAug 12 · 16:30J. Tazler331111113R. Wagner239860
WAug 12 · 12:30J. Tazler4211119113R. Wagner29731181
LAug 9 · 20:59J. Tazler2989120R. Wagner361111143
LAug 9 · 18:00J. Tazler25541151R. Wagner3811115113
J. Tazler10
WSep 24 · 01:30J. Tazler1.83781111113T. Franek1.8311117992WSep 24 · 24:30M. Sychra2.001159101J. Tazler1.7351111123WSep 23 · 23:30R. Wagner1.807880J. Tazler1.911111113LSep 23 · 22:30J. Tazler2.10813671S. Kasnik1.67111111113WSep 19 · 21:13J. Tazler4.50561211113J. Louda1.17111110892WSep 19 · 20:30J. Louda1.611111561J. Tazler2.2013911113LSep 19 · 19:30J. Tazler4.00691111112R. Urbaniec1.22111137133LSep 19 · 18:30O. Svacha1.2091111113J. Tazler4.33112571LSep 19 · 09:28J. Tazler2.50111110872M. Wagner1.50591211113WSep 19 · 08:30J. Tazler2.1011913113O. Cmerda1.678111171
R. Wagner10
WSep 24 · 02:30T. Franek1.839119101R. Wagner1.8311911123WSep 24 · 01:00S. Kasnik2.2511175962R. Wagner1.576151111113LSep 23 · 23:30R. Wagner1.807880J. Tazler1.911111113WSep 23 · 22:00R. Wagner2.1011118113M. Sychra1.67761191LSep 22 · 13:00M. Regner1.801112113R. Wagner1.8581070LSep 22 · 12:30R. Wagner2.2011711792V. Kolar1.61811611113LSep 22 · 11:00R. Wagner1.578470J. Zuzanek2.251111113LSep 22 · 10:00M. Regner2.501111113R. Wagner1.508690WSep 22 · 09:30J. Louda2.0071111692R. Wagner1.73112911113WSep 22 · 08:00J. Zuzanek2.00712861R. Wagner1.73111011113
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