TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Sebastian Kasnik vs Richard Wagner 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Sebastian Kasnik
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161715511911611
Richard Wagner
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:04 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Richard Wagner below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 102 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Richard Wagner at 60.9%
102 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 6–9 Richard Wagner Sebastian Kasnik has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:04What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Wagner
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1547 vs Wagner 1651
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 40% vs Wagner 20%
Kasnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 40% vs Wagner 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik -1 · Wagner -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 2.25 / Wagner 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Wagner)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13178842
Kasnik2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 115 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back20% 31 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 90
Wagner1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 71 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it80% 53 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKasnik4wins
AwayWagner6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderWagner leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik50%3 of 6
AwayWagner75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik6Wagner4n = 10Kasnik took 6 of 10
S2Kasnik2Wagner8n = 10Wagner took 8 of 10
S3Kasnik6Wagner4n = 10Kasnik took 6 of 10
S4Kasnik3Wagner7n = 10Wagner took 7 of 10
S5Kasnik2Wagner1n = 3Kasnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasnikWagnerK − WBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.442.6−1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime472 / 1006 vs 115 / 21846.9%52.8%472 / 1006 vs 115 / 218Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerKasnik 2.25/Wagner 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 06:30S. Kasnik4211713113R. Wagner356111171
LSep 13 · 24:00S. Kasnik32114981R. Wagner3851111113
WSep 4 · 10:30S. Kasnik551191112123R. Wagner491311510102
LSep 4 · 08:58S. Kasnik35117981R. Wagner4181111113
LSep 4 · 07:30S. Kasnik31811751R. Wagner4011711113
WAug 28 · 02:30S. Kasnik561114119113R. Wagner4541691152
LAug 25 · 11:30S. Kasnik36791191R. Wagner4211119113
LAug 25 · 09:30S. Kasnik5011915962R. Wagner559111311113
WAug 25 · 07:30S. Kasnik4312146113R. Wagner4210121191
LAug 18 · 16:58S. Kasnik34981161R. Wagner3911116113
S. Kasnik10
LSep 24 · 24:00T. Franek2.001211711113S. Kasnik1.7314511442WSep 23 · 22:30J. Tazler2.10813671S. Kasnik1.67111111113LSep 23 · 21:30M. Pikous1.531311113S. Kasnik2.3811560WSep 23 · 20:00S. Kasnik1.911111123D. Hofman1.8048100LSep 23 · 19:30M. Pikous1.571111113S. Kasnik2.257860WSep 23 · 18:00S. Kasnik2.101111113M. Bittner1.678720LSep 22 · 21:00M. Vondrak1.821191110113S. Kasnik1.8881191222LSep 22 · 20:30S. Kasnik1.736480M. Skakal2.001111113LSep 22 · 19:00S. Kasnik2.0011841182M. Sychra1.73911119113WSep 22 · 18:00M. Vondrak2.38911131152S. Kasnik1.53116158113
R. Wagner10
LSep 23 · 23:30R. Wagner1.807880J. Tazler1.911111113WSep 23 · 22:00R. Wagner2.1011118113M. Sychra1.67761191LSep 22 · 13:00M. Regner1.801112113R. Wagner1.8581070LSep 22 · 12:30R. Wagner2.2011711792V. Kolar1.61811611113LSep 22 · 11:00R. Wagner1.578470J. Zuzanek2.251111113LSep 22 · 10:00M. Regner2.501111113R. Wagner1.508690WSep 22 · 09:30J. Louda2.0071111692R. Wagner1.73112911113WSep 22 · 08:00J. Zuzanek2.00712861R. Wagner1.73111011113WSep 22 · 07:00J. Louda2.00109111182R. Wagner1.73121189113LSep 22 · 06:30R. Wagner1.536111171S. Kasnik2.3811713113
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