TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Marcel Pikous vs Sebastian Kasnik 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Marcel Pikous
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311115116––––
Sebastian Kasnik
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcel Pikous to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Pikous above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 57 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Marcel Pikous at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Pikous 27–24 Sebastian Kasnik Sebastian Kasnik has won 24 of their 51 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Pikous beat Kasnik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pikous
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-24 in 51
Pikous
Correct
gap of 3 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pikous 1614 vs Kasnik 1539
Pikous
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pikous 40% vs Kasnik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pikous 50% vs Kasnik 30%
Pikous
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pikous -1 · Kasnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Pikous) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pikous form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPikous 1.53 / Kasnik 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Pikous)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13186282
Pikous1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 99 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it90% 51 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it77% 71 of 92
Kasnik2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 115 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back20% 31 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePikous8wins
AwayKasnik2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPikous leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePikous100%7 of 7
AwayKasnik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pikous7Kasnik3n = 10Pikous took 7 of 10
S2Pikous7Kasnik3n = 10Pikous took 7 of 10
S3Pikous10Kasnik0n = 10Pikous took 10 of 10
S4Pikous3Kasnik1n = 4Pikous took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPikousKasnikP − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.928.6+7.3per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPikousKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 688 vs 471 / 100452.9%46.9%364 / 688 vs 471 / 1004Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PikousPikous 1.53/Kasnik 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Pikous · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pikous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 21:30M. Pikous351311113S. Kasnik2211560
WSep 23 · 19:30M. Pikous331111113S. Kasnik217860
LAug 20 · 22:00M. Pikous29941151S. Kasnik4011117113
WJun 19 · 24:00M. Pikous4011711113S. Kasnik27711721
LJun 11 · 03:30M. Pikous45710111252S. Kasnik511112710113
WJun 10 · 22:30M. Pikous4471312123S. Kasnik42111110101
WJun 9 · 19:00M. Pikous331111113S. Kasnik218940
WJun 9 · 01:00M. Pikous341111123S. Kasnik1963100
WJun 5 · 03:00M. Pikous331111113S. Kasnik199550
WJun 4 · 22:00M. Pikous331111113S. Kasnik247980
M. Pikous10
LSep 23 · 20:30M. Bittner1.5361111113M. Pikous2.38117891WSep 23 · 19:30M. Pikous1.571111113S. Kasnik2.257860WSep 23 · 18:30D. Hofman1.8052111112M. Pikous1.91111188113LSep 22 · 17:30V. Kolar1.73111012113M. Pikous2.009121061LSep 22 · 16:30M. Pikous1.8311691192V. Kolar1.83411117113LSep 22 · 15:00M. Pikous2.2046131162P. Saleny1.611111119113WSep 22 · 14:00V. Nohejl2.756630M. Pikous1.401111113LSep 17 · 17:28R. Urbaniec1.8311139113M. Pikous1.835111191WSep 17 · 16:30J. Louda1.737740M. Pikous2.001111113WSep 17 · 15:30M. Pikous1.6111119113A. Brazda2.20571151
S. Kasnik10
WSep 23 · 20:00S. Kasnik1.911111123D. Hofman1.8048100LSep 23 · 19:30M. Pikous1.571111113S. Kasnik2.257860WSep 23 · 18:00S. Kasnik2.101111113M. Bittner1.678720LSep 22 · 21:00M. Vondrak1.821191110113S. Kasnik1.8881191222LSep 22 · 20:30S. Kasnik1.736480M. Skakal2.001111113LSep 22 · 19:00S. Kasnik2.0011841182M. Sychra1.73911119113WSep 22 · 18:00M. Vondrak2.38911131152S. Kasnik1.53116158113LSep 22 · 09:04S. Kasnik2.5011841192J. Zuzanek1.50411116113LSep 22 · 08:30J. Louda1.7311114113S. Kasnik2.00651151LSep 22 · 07:30S. Kasnik2.38791291J. Zuzanek1.53111110113
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