TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vondrak vs Sebastian Kasnik 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Michal Vondrak
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111161315118511
Sebastian Kasnik
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:25 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeSebastian Kasnik to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vondrak above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 100 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Sebastian Kasnik at 54.5%
100 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vondrak 3–9 Sebastian Kasnik Michal Vondrak has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:25What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kasnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-9 in 12
Kasnik
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vondrak 1682 vs Kasnik 1549
Vondrak
Wrong
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vondrak 40% vs Kasnik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vondrak 50% vs Kasnik 30%
Vondrak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vondrak -1 · Kasnik -3
Kasnik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kasnik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVondrak 2.38 / Kasnik 1.53
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kasnik)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13168405
Vondrak2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog46% won 65 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back31% 22 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Kasnik1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 98 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it91% 58 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it73% 80 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVondrak3wins
AwayKasnik7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKasnik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVondrak60%3 of 5
AwayKasnik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vondrak5Kasnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Vondrak0Kasnik10n = 10Kasnik took 10 of 10
S3Vondrak5Kasnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Vondrak1Kasnik6n = 7Kasnik took 6 of 7
S5Vondrak3Kasnik1n = 4Vondrak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVondrakKasnikV − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.342.1−4.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVondrakKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime315 / 643 vs 468 / 99649%47%315 / 643 vs 468 / 996Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasnikVondrak 2.38/Kasnik 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Kasnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kasnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 12:00M. Vondrak30651181S. Kasnik3611113113
LAug 12 · 19:00M. Vondrak4311512872S. Kasnik507111011113
LJul 2 · 13:30M. Vondrak196670S. Kasnik331111113
WJul 2 · 12:00M. Vondrak45135511113S. Kasnik46111111852
WJun 21 · 21:00M. Vondrak48117115143S. Kasnik47711611122
LJun 21 · 20:00M. Vondrak4512101581S. Kasnik50101217113
LMay 25 · 21:00M. Vondrak4012101441S. Kasnik49141212113
LMay 25 · 20:30M. Vondrak237790S. Kasnik331111113
WMay 12 · 08:58M. Vondrak51129118113S. Kasnik42101161142
LMay 12 · 08:30M. Vondrak29101090S. Kasnik351212113
M. Vondrak10
LSep 22 · 19:30M. Skakal1.83111156113M. Vondrak1.8395111162LSep 19 · 09:30M. Regner2.1511119113M. Vondrak1.62531161WSep 19 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.739101181M. Vondrak2.0011125113WSep 19 · 07:00J. Zuzanek2.0081161272M. Vondrak1.731131110113LSep 19 · 06:30M. Vondrak1.5311771192M. Regner2.38911118113LSep 18 · 17:29M. Vondrak2.001181191V. Vejvoda1.7381113113WSep 18 · 16:00V. Vejvoda1.738611101M. Vondrak2.0011119123WSep 18 · 15:00D. Hofman1.83713138102M. Vondrak1.8311111111123WSep 18 · 14:30M. Vondrak1.6111117113J. Tazler2.20781161LSep 17 · 16:59M. Vondrak1.9189110M. Klement1.801111133
S. Kasnik10
LSep 22 · 19:00S. Kasnik2.0011841182M. Sychra1.73911119113LSep 22 · 09:04S. Kasnik2.5011841192J. Zuzanek1.50411116113LSep 22 · 08:30J. Louda1.7311114113S. Kasnik2.00651151LSep 22 · 07:30S. Kasnik2.38791291J. Zuzanek1.53111110113WSep 22 · 06:30R. Wagner1.536111171S. Kasnik2.3811713113WSep 21 · 12:58S. Kasnik1.50111177113M. Regner2.5086111192WSep 21 · 12:30M. Regner2.38811771S. Kasnik1.5311811113LSep 21 · 11:30S. Kasnik2.2511491142J. Zuzanek1.57811114113LSep 21 · 10:30M. Sychra1.80111110113S. Kasnik1.91881291LSep 21 · 08:58S. Kasnik1.91116841M. Sychra1.8091111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Vondrak
S. Kasnik
Sep 22 · 20:30S. Kasnik1.73M. Skakal2.00—Sep 23 · 18:00S. Kasnik2.50M. Bittner1.50—Sep 23 · 19:30S. Kasnik2.25M. Pikous1.57—Sep 23 · 20:00S. Kasnik1.91D. Hofman1.80—Sep 23 · 22:30S. Kasnik1.67J. Tazler2.10—Sep 24 · 24:00S. Kasnik1.57T. Franek2.25—Sep 24 · 01:00S. Kasnik2.20R. Wagner1.61—Sep 24 · 02:00S. Kasnik2.00M. Sychra1.73—
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