TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13152625
Played Sep 19Finished
Michal Vondrak
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119711711118911
Michal Regner
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:43 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Vondrak to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Vondrak above · Michal Regner below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Michal Vondrak at 65.2%
95 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vondrak 15–8 Michal Regner Michal Regner has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vondrak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-8 in 23
Vondrak
Wrong
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vondrak 1694 vs Regner 1653
Vondrak
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vondrak 60% vs Regner 20%
Vondrak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vondrak 60% vs Regner 30%
Vondrak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vondrak -1 · Regner +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Vondrak) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVondrak 1.53 / Regner 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Vondrak)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13152625
Vondrak1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 60 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it72% 36 of 50
Regner2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 112 of 246
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVondrak6wins
AwayRegner4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVondrak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVondrak66.7%2 of 3
AwayRegner42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vondrak3Regner7n = 10Regner took 7 of 10
S2Vondrak7Regner3n = 10Vondrak took 7 of 10
S3Vondrak5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S4Vondrak6Regner3n = 9Vondrak took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVondrakRegnerV − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.038.5+0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVondrakRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime315 / 642 vs 511 / 105349.1%48.5%315 / 642 vs 511 / 1053Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VondrakVondrak 1.53/Regner 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.8%
Vondrak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 06:30M. Vondrak4511771192M. Regner50911118113
WSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak4211155113M. Regner399131161
WSep 4 · 08:30M. Vondrak4291111113M. Regner34118871
LAug 28 · 06:00M. Vondrak30111090M. Regner361312113
WJul 30 · 09:30M. Vondrak3961111113M. Regner31117761
WJul 30 · 06:00M. Vondrak45811114113M. Regner4411871172
WJul 15 · 13:29M. Vondrak4181111113M. Regner33118951
LJul 15 · 11:00M. Vondrak32511971M. Regner4211911113
LMay 13 · 13:30M. Vondrak336116101M. Regner4211811123
WMay 13 · 10:30M. Vondrak4111811113M. Regner34811871
M. Vondrak10
WSep 19 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.739101181M. Vondrak2.0011125113WSep 19 · 07:00J. Zuzanek2.0081161272M. Vondrak1.731131110113LSep 18 · 17:29M. Vondrak2.001181191V. Vejvoda1.7381113113WSep 18 · 16:00V. Vejvoda1.738611101M. Vondrak2.0011119123WSep 18 · 15:00D. Hofman1.83713138102M. Vondrak1.8311111111123WSep 18 · 14:30M. Vondrak1.6111117113J. Tazler2.20781161LSep 17 · 16:59M. Vondrak1.9189110M. Klement1.801111133LSep 17 · 16:00M. Vondrak1.91118871V. Vejvoda1.8061111113WSep 17 · 15:30M. Sychra2.00138111152M. Vondrak1.731111913113WSep 17 · 14:00M. Vondrak2.101112113M. Klement1.6771070
M. Regner10
WSep 19 · 07:30M. Regner2.25111114113V. Vejvoda1.57841681WSep 18 · 02:30M. Regner2.20124118113M. Skakal1.61101191162LSep 18 · 01:30V. Vejvoda1.671111113M. Regner2.108940LSep 18 · 24:00M. Regner1.8311511482M. Klement1.83311811113LSep 17 · 23:00T. Franek1.50118144113M. Regner2.50611121162LSep 17 · 08:58J. Zuzanek1.91131011113M. Regner1.801112861WSep 17 · 08:30M. Regner2.0011811113J. Zuzanek1.73911791LSep 17 · 07:00M. Regner1.671261261J. Tazler2.10101114113LSep 17 · 06:00R. Wagner1.6111118113M. Regner2.20581191WSep 16 · 03:30M. Regner1.68121013113M. Sychra2.0510121191
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