TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Denis Hofman vs Marcel Pikous 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Denis Hofman
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511211118118111
Marcel Pikous
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:05 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeDenis Hofman to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenis Hofman above · Marcel Pikous below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 1-11
Point 79 set 5, 1-11 — our read held Denis Hofman at 55.8%
79 points played in total.
H2H Denis Hofman 36–30 Marcel Pikous Marcel Pikous has won 30 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hofman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-30 in 66
Hofman
Wrong
gap of 6 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hofman 1597 vs Pikous 1579
Hofman
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hofman 40% vs Pikous 20%
Hofman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hofman 30% vs Pikous 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hofman +1 · Pikous -3
Pikous
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hofman) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pikous form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHofman 1.80 / Pikous 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hofman)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13178807
Hofman1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 61 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it65% 37 of 57
Pikous1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 22)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 39 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back28% 14 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHofman10wins
AwayPikous0wins
6 of 10 to a deciderHofman leads 10–0, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHofman100%7 of 7
AwayPikous0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hofman7Pikous3n = 10Hofman took 7 of 10
S2Hofman5Pikous5n = 10split evenly
S3Hofman7Pikous3n = 10Hofman took 7 of 10
S4Hofman5Pikous3n = 8Hofman took 5 of 8
S5Hofman6Pikous0n = 6Hofman took 6 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home660%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHofmanPikousH − PBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.438.6+3.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHofmanPikousBasisWin rate · lifetime454 / 933 vs 361 / 68448.7%52.8%454 / 933 vs 361 / 684Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HofmanHofman 1.80/Pikous 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hofman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pikous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 16:30D. Hofman361114113M. Pikous2781270
WSep 4 · 17:33D. Hofman41412113113M. Pikous48111081182
WSep 4 · 15:00D. Hofman49115148113M. Pikous46611121162
WAug 23 · 24:00D. Hofman351311113M. Pikous2611780
WAug 9 · 01:30D. Hofman3811511113M. Pikous32711591
WJul 30 · 22:30D. Hofman42711112113M. Pikous4311581182
WJul 22 · 02:59D. Hofman4011117113M. Pikous29491151
WJul 22 · 01:30D. Hofman43114611113M. Pikous4891111892
WJul 16 · 16:30D. Hofman463101111113M. Pikous4111127832
WJul 12 · 01:30D. Hofman5411111011113M. Pikous4671312592
D. Hofman10
LSep 23 · 20:00S. Kasnik1.911111123D. Hofman1.8048100WSep 23 · 19:00M. Bittner2.00811131132D. Hofman1.73117156113WSep 18 · 16:59J. Tazler1.67511131192D. Hofman2.10119155113LSep 18 · 16:30D. Hofman2.00471171J. Tazler1.7311119113LSep 18 · 15:00D. Hofman1.83713138102M. Vondrak1.8311111111123LSep 18 · 14:00V. Vejvoda1.571211113D. Hofman2.2510560WSep 9 · 21:00M. Klement1.8371111792D. Hofman1.83113211113LSep 9 · 20:00D. Hofman1.67101450J. Tazler2.101216113LSep 9 · 19:30M. Klement1.831111113D. Hofman1.834570LSep 9 · 18:00D. Hofman2.0011118342M. Skakal1.73561111113
M. Pikous10
WSep 23 · 19:30M. Pikous1.571111113S. Kasnik2.257860LSep 22 · 17:30V. Kolar1.73111012113M. Pikous2.009121061LSep 22 · 16:30M. Pikous1.8311691192V. Kolar1.83411117113LSep 22 · 15:00M. Pikous2.2046131162P. Saleny1.611111119113WSep 22 · 14:00V. Nohejl2.756630M. Pikous1.401111113LSep 17 · 17:28R. Urbaniec1.8311139113M. Pikous1.835111191WSep 17 · 16:30J. Louda1.737740M. Pikous2.001111113WSep 17 · 15:30M. Pikous1.6111119113A. Brazda2.20571151LSep 17 · 14:30R. Urbaniec2.7512114113M. Pikous1.401041171LSep 10 · 02:30M. Sychra1.9611118113M. Pikous1.67931181
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