TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13147019
Played Sep 18Finished
Denis Hofman
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411711119711––
Jakub Tazler
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Tazler to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenis Hofman above · Jakub Tazler below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jakub Tazler at 54.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Denis Hofman 7–10 Jakub Tazler Denis Hofman has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tazler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Tazler
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hofman 1587 vs Tazler 1625
Tazler
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hofman 20% vs Tazler 40%
Tazler
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hofman 30% vs Tazler 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hofman -2 · Tazler -3
Tazler
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Tazler) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tazler form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHofman 2.00 / Tazler 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Tazler)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13147019
Hofman2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 99 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back28% 30 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back14% 7 of 52
Tazler1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 80 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it79% 63 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHofman5wins
AwayTazler5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHofman80%4 of 5
AwayTazler80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hofman5Tazler5n = 10split evenly
S2Hofman6Tazler4n = 10Hofman took 6 of 10
S3Hofman5Tazler5n = 10split evenly
S4Hofman3Tazler3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHofmanTazlerH − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.437.0+0.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHofmanTazlerBasisWin rate · lifetime453 / 930 vs 391 / 72148.7%54.2%453 / 930 vs 391 / 721Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TazlerHofman 2.00/Tazler 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Tazler · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tazler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 20:00D. Hofman29101450J. Tazler391216113
WAug 19 · 12:30D. Hofman341112113J. Tazler2891090
WAug 16 · 22:30D. Hofman331111113J. Tazler248790
WAug 16 · 18:00D. Hofman3741111113J. Tazler26116541
LAug 12 · 14:30D. Hofman449177111J. Tazler50111511133
LAug 12 · 11:00D. Hofman5014118892J. Tazler531281111113
LAug 11 · 16:30D. Hofman3215980J. Tazler391711113
WAug 11 · 11:30D. Hofman4411911133J. Tazler399118111
WJul 30 · 15:00D. Hofman4111811113J. Tazler34611981
LJul 24 · 21:30D. Hofman30811471J. Tazler3811511113
D. Hofman10
WSep 18 · 16:59J. Tazler1.67511131192D. Hofman2.10119155113LSep 18 · 15:00D. Hofman1.83713138102M. Vondrak1.8311111111123LSep 18 · 14:00V. Vejvoda1.571211113D. Hofman2.2510560WSep 9 · 21:00M. Klement1.8371111792D. Hofman1.83113211113LSep 9 · 20:00D. Hofman1.67101450J. Tazler2.101216113LSep 9 · 19:30M. Klement1.831111113D. Hofman1.834570LSep 9 · 18:00D. Hofman2.0011118342M. Skakal1.73561111113WSep 5 · 20:59D. Hofman1.671011117113K. Schopf2.1012871192LSep 5 · 20:30R. Pacha1.6711118113D. Hofman2.10551161LSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123
J. Tazler10
LSep 19 · 18:30O. Svacha1.2091111113J. Tazler4.33112571LSep 19 · 09:28J. Tazler2.50111110872M. Wagner1.50591211113WSep 19 · 08:30J. Tazler2.1011913113O. Cmerda1.678111171LSep 19 · 07:00J. Tazler2.381114971M. Wagner1.5371611113WSep 19 · 06:00P. Saleny1.501110101112J. Tazler2.50512126113LSep 18 · 16:59J. Tazler1.67511131192D. Hofman2.10119155113LSep 18 · 15:30J. Tazler2.2091111282V. Vejvoda1.61115511113LSep 18 · 14:30M. Vondrak1.6111117113J. Tazler2.20781161LSep 17 · 09:28R. Wagner1.9111136133J. Tazler1.8031111111WSep 9 · 20:00D. Hofman1.67101450J. Tazler2.101216113
Upcoming Matches
D. Hofman
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J. Tazler
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