TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Bittner vs Denis Hofman 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Martin Bittner
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111171315116311
Denis Hofman
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenis Hofman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Bittner above · Denis Hofman below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 96 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Denis Hofman at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Martin Bittner 0–1 Denis Hofman Martin Bittner has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:53What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hofman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Bittner 1530 vs Hofman 1586
Hofman
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bittner 40% vs Hofman 20%
Bittner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bittner 20% vs Hofman 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bittner -2 · Hofman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hofman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hofman form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBittner 2.00 / Hofman 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hofman)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13178794
Bittner2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog26% won 6 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Hofman1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 61 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it65% 37 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBittner0wins
AwayHofman1wins
Hofman leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricBittnerHofmanB − HBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.040.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBittnerHofmanBasisWin rate · lifetime35 / 73 vs 452 / 93048%48.6%35 / 73 vs 452 / 930Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HofmanBittner 2.00/Hofman 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hofman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hofman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJan 15 · 21:00M. Bittner381110891D. Hofman4061211113
M. Bittner10
LSep 23 · 18:00S. Kasnik2.101111113M. Bittner1.678720LSep 9 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.871311113M. Bittner1.8311690WSep 9 · 20:00M. Pikous2.008111191M. Bittner1.7311913113WSep 9 · 19:00D. Tuma2.3897111182M. Bittner1.53111169113LSep 9 · 18:30M. Bittner1.7391011101J. Stolfa2.0011123123LAug 2 · 20:59M. Sychra1.331113123M. Bittner3.25511100LAug 2 · 20:00M. Sychra1.401111113M. Bittner2.759880LAug 2 · 19:00P. Sebera1.911313113M. Bittner1.80111180LAug 2 · 18:30M. Bittner2.6311320O. Svacha1.441311113LAug 2 · 12:59M. Regner1.4411115113M. Bittner2.63871171
D. Hofman10
LSep 23 · 20:00S. Kasnik1.911111123D. Hofman1.8048100LSep 23 · 18:30D. Hofman1.8052111112M. Pikous1.91111188113WSep 18 · 16:59J. Tazler1.67511131192D. Hofman2.10119155113LSep 18 · 16:30D. Hofman2.00471171J. Tazler1.7311119113LSep 18 · 15:00D. Hofman1.83713138102M. Vondrak1.8311111111123LSep 18 · 14:00V. Vejvoda1.571211113D. Hofman2.2510560WSep 9 · 21:00M. Klement1.8371111792D. Hofman1.83113211113LSep 9 · 20:00D. Hofman1.67101450J. Tazler2.101216113LSep 9 · 19:30M. Klement1.831111113D. Hofman1.834570LSep 9 · 18:00D. Hofman2.0011118342M. Skakal1.73561111113
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