TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Tebenko vs Oleksandr Storozhenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171161311––––
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 59 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 28–35 Oleksandr Storozhenko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 28 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:40What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Storozhenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-35 in 63
Storozhenko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1623 vs Storozhenko 1562
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 60% vs Storozhenko 80%
Storozhenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 70% vs Storozhenko 40%
Tebenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko -1 · Storozhenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tebenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 1.91 / Storozhenko 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tebenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13185910
Tebenko1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 121 of 250
Down 0–1, comes back33% 44 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 71
Storozhenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 163 of 295
Up 2–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it68% 106 of 155
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko6wins
AwayStorozhenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko71.4%5 of 7
AwayStorozhenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko7Storozhenko3n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S2Tebenko6Storozhenko4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S3Tebenko5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Tebenko4Storozhenko3n = 7Tebenko took 4 of 7
S5Tebenko1Storozhenko2n = 3Storozhenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoStorozhenkoT − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.638.7−0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 843 vs 273 / 52448.8%52.1%411 / 843 vs 273 / 524Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoTebenko 1.91/Storozhenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 24:15Y. Tebenko187740O. Storozhenko331111113
LSep 20 · 14:05Y. Tebenko35118971O. Storozhenko4181111113
WSep 16 · 11:05Y. Tebenko4211119113O. Storozhenko34891161
LSep 15 · 15:35Y. Tebenko591212121492O. Storozhenko6110101416113
WSep 11 · 20:45Y. Tebenko4011513113O. Storozhenko377111181
WSep 9 · 08:05Y. Tebenko331111113O. Storozhenko258980
WSep 8 · 15:35Y. Tebenko4181111113O. Storozhenko36117991
WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko45116611113O. Storozhenko4241111972
LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko4031212672O. Storozhenko5311101011113
WSep 3 · 23:15Y. Tebenko331111113O. Storozhenko259790
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 24 · 14:25M. Potapov1.80121325113Y. Tebenko1.911011111132WSep 24 · 12:55Y. Tebenko1.8041111123D. Maltsev1.911189101WSep 23 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80116861Y. Tebenko1.9181111113WSep 23 · 01:15Y. Tebenko1.801111113D. Maltsev1.916750LSep 23 · 24:15Y. Tebenko1.837740O. Storozhenko1.831111113LSep 22 · 22:45Y. Tebenko1.501191081I. Fashchevskyi2.5091112113WSep 22 · 20:45Y. Tebenko1.67111189123I. Pytsko2.10781111102WSep 20 · 19:05Y. Tebenko2.1041113113D. Shchegelskyi1.671151181WSep 20 · 17:05V. Kovalchuk1.6711911832Y. Tebenko2.10711811113WSep 20 · 15:05R. Novak1.8371171162Y. Tebenko1.83117119113
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 24 · 13:25I. Fashchevskyi2.25811421O. Storozhenko1.5711611113WSep 24 · 12:25M. Potapov2.2511791162O. Storozhenko1.57911114113LSep 23 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.2091411113O. Storozhenko1.611112971WSep 23 · 01:45I. Pytsko2.0061281192O. Storozhenko1.731110118113WSep 23 · 24:15Y. Tebenko1.837740O. Storozhenko1.831111113LSep 22 · 22:15D. Maltsev1.91131145113O. Storozhenko1.80114111182LSep 22 · 20:15M. Potapov2.5081111113O. Storozhenko1.50114871LSep 21 · 18:55O. Storozhenko1.8312106141Y. Parahailo1.83101211163LSep 21 · 16:55D. Maltsev1.91111195113O. Storozhenko1.8096111192LSep 21 · 14:55I. Fashchevskyi2.20981412113O. Storozhenko1.611111121062
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