TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Pilch vs Jan Szotkowski 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Jakub Pilch
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119119411117––
Jan Szotkowski
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Pilch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Pilch above · Jan Szotkowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Jakub Pilch at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Pilch 7–16 Jan Szotkowski Jakub Pilch has won 7 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:31What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Szotkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-16 in 23
Szotkowski
Wrong
gap of 9 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pilch 1777 vs Szotkowski 1907
Szotkowski
Wrong
both rated, 130 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pilch 40% vs Szotkowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pilch 60% vs Szotkowski 40%
Pilch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pilch -2 · Szotkowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Szotkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPilch 2.75 / Szotkowski 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Szotkowski)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13183031
Pilch2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 32 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back30% 12 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Szotkowski1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 135 of 252
Up 2–0, closes it93% 71 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it74% 107 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePilch2wins
AwaySzotkowski8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSzotkowski leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePilchn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySzotkowski87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pilch2Szotkowski8n = 10Szotkowski took 8 of 10
S2Pilch4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S3Pilch2Szotkowski8n = 10Szotkowski took 8 of 10
S4Pilch3Szotkowski3n = 6split evenly
S5Pilch2Szotkowski3n = 5Szotkowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPilchSzotkowskiP − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.241.7−9.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPilchSzotkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 447 vs 447 / 85050.1%52.6%224 / 447 vs 447 / 850Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.640.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzotkowskiPilch 2.75/Szotkowski 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Szotkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pilch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 13 · 13:59J. Pilch174490J. Szotkowski331111113
LMar 13 · 13:00J. Pilch175750J. Szotkowski331111113
LFeb 23 · 14:30J. Pilch49134121192J. Szotkowski501111143113
WFeb 23 · 12:30J. Pilch55914813113J. Szotkowski521112111172
LJan 28 · 10:01J. Pilch3121111342J. Szotkowski46116711113
LJan 28 · 09:00J. Pilch2182110J. Szotkowski351111133
LJan 20 · 11:00J. Pilch365116141J. Szotkowski4611811163
LDec 28 · 18:06J. Pilch4341191182J. Szotkowski47119115113
WDec 28 · 16:00J. Pilch46118115113J. Szotkowski4261151192
LNov 25 · 10:00J. Pilch73310J. Szotkowski331111113
J. Pilch10
WSep 24 · 12:30T. Zika2.0011960J. Pilch1.731311113LSep 24 · 10:30R. Revay1.36711116113J. Pilch3.0011671152LSep 23 · 13:30T. Zika1.871111113J. Pilch1.835970WSep 23 · 12:00P. Wawrosz1.8389100J. Pilch1.831111123WSep 23 · 11:00M. Navedla2.1061191182J. Pilch1.67117119113LSep 23 · 10:30J. Pilch1.80612861T. Zika1.91111011113WSep 21 · 17:30J. Pilch1.801111104113T. Zika1.9189121192WSep 21 · 16:00J. Pilch1.801111123T. Zika1.9197100WSep 21 · 15:30D. Ondryas2.10101080J. Pilch1.661212113LSep 21 · 14:00J. Pilch1.73117791M. Grundel2.0081111113
J. Szotkowski10
WSep 24 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.67111179143R. Revay2.10781111122WSep 24 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.6711812123T. Zika2.1041110101WSep 22 · 17:00J. Dzida1.613212151J. Szotkowski2.20111110173LSep 22 · 16:30R. Niezgoda2.201111113J. Szotkowski1.618560LSep 22 · 15:30J. Szotkowski1.678111171M. Biolek2.1011913113LSep 22 · 14:30J. Dzida1.731110811113J. Szotkowski2.0081211582LSep 22 · 13:30J. Szotkowski1.551457101R. Polasek2.25121111123WSep 22 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.5711118113R. Polasek2.25891191WSep 22 · 11:30T. Zika1.91511851J. Szotkowski1.8011711113LSep 22 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.50711101182M. Vavrecka2.50116127113
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