TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Zmuda vs Martin Sobisek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Petr Zmuda
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
111119118119––
Martin Sobisek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:03 and never touched — 60.0% is still 60.0%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
60.0%
60.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Martin Sobisek below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Petr Zmuda at 60.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 11–6 Martin Sobisek Martin Sobisek has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zmuda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-6 in 17
Zmuda
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1620 vs Sobisek 1574
Zmuda
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 80% vs Sobisek 40%
Zmuda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 70% vs Sobisek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda +2 · Sobisek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zmuda) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobisek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 1.80 / Sobisek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zmuda)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13182915
Zmuda1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 59 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it85% 40 of 47
Sobisek1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 127 of 313
Down 0–1, comes back26% 47 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZmuda7wins
AwaySobisek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZmuda leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmudan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySobisek37.5%3 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda2Sobisek8n = 10Sobisek took 8 of 10
S2Zmuda6Sobisek4n = 10Zmuda took 6 of 10
S3Zmuda5Sobisek5n = 10split evenly
S4Zmuda7Sobisek1n = 8Zmuda took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZmudaSobisekZ − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.736.9−0.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaSobisekBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 254 vs 575 / 121852%47.2%132 / 254 vs 575 / 1218Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaZmuda 1.80/Sobisek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zmuda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 19:30P. Zmuda178360M. Sobisek331111113
WAug 11 · 03:30P. Zmuda4181111113M. Sobisek31118841
WAug 11 · 24:30P. Zmuda49711911113M. Sobisek4411911582
WAug 8 · 02:30P. Zmuda4071111113M. Sobisek32116781
WAug 6 · 20:58P. Zmuda521113611113M. Sobisek5181511892
WAug 6 · 19:30P. Zmuda4061211113M. Sobisek341110491
LAug 3 · 22:30P. Zmuda31661181M. Sobisek3611113113
WAug 3 · 19:00P. Zmuda3961111113M. Sobisek34118871
LAug 2 · 15:30P. Zmuda132380M. Sobisek331111113
WJul 31 · 12:30P. Zmuda4516135113M. Sobisek4114111151
P. Zmuda10
WSep 24 · 11:30V. Cermak1.7341160P. Zmuda2.001113113WSep 24 · 10:00P. Zmuda1.73117911113D. Tuma2.0051111962LSep 23 · 09:00P. Zmuda1.4061140M. Vedmoch2.751113113WSep 23 · 08:00M. Vedmoch2.63311371P. Zmuda1.4411511113WSep 23 · 07:00R. Pavelka1.83108111382P. Zmuda1.831211511113LSep 23 · 06:30P. Zmuda1.4471131192J. Plachy2.63119115113WSep 22 · 17:00P. Zmuda1.571111113M. Vedmoch2.258640WSep 22 · 16:30P. Zmuda2.25114811113M. Volf1.5781111872WSep 22 · 15:00P. Zmuda1.731211113M. Vedmoch2.0010890LSep 22 · 14:00T. Holik1.7311813113P. Zmuda2.008111141
M. Sobisek10
LSep 24 · 12:58V. Cermak1.8011119113M. Sobisek1.91491121LSep 24 · 11:00D. Tuma1.83111110113M. Sobisek1.83761281LSep 24 · 10:30M. Sobisek1.611271141V. Cermak2.20101113113WSep 24 · 09:30R. Pavelka2.904480M. Sobisek1.351111113LSep 24 · 08:00J. Stolfa1.731111113M. Sobisek2.006760WSep 24 · 07:00M. Vedmoch3.00611631M. Sobisek1.3611911113WSep 24 · 06:30M. Sobisek1.401111113R. Pavelka2.756490WSep 23 · 17:30D. Tuma1.788870M. Sobisek1.921111113LSep 23 · 16:00J. Trefny1.9111114113M. Sobisek1.80671181WSep 23 · 15:00V. Cermak2.1071111192M. Sobisek1.67111175113
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