TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Kamil Kos vs Michal Szostak 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Kamil Kos
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111169111311711
Michal Szostak
Away
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Kos to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
9111169111311711
H2H Kamil Kos 9–11 Michal Szostak Kamil Kos has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Kos beat Szostak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:47What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Szostak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Szostak
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kos 1464 vs Szostak 1413
Kos
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kos 60% vs Szostak 40%
Kos
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kos 60% vs Szostak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kos +1 · Szostak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kos)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostak form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKos 1.85 / Szostak 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kos)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13180657
Kos1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Szostak1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKos6wins
AwaySzostak4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKos leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKos60%6 of 10
AwaySzostakn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kos10Szostak0n = 10Kos took 10 of 10
S2Kos5Szostak5n = 10split evenly
S3Kos5Szostak5n = 10split evenly
S4Kos3Szostak5n = 8Szostak took 5 of 8
S5Kos2Szostak3n = 5Szostak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosSzostakK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match42.041.2+0.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosSzostakBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 303 vs 125 / 25350.5%49.4%153 / 303 vs 125 / 253Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosKos 1.85/Szostak 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kos · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Szostak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 20:30K. Kos351113113M. Szostak2581160
WSep 9 · 20:30K. Kos341211113M. Szostak2710980
WSep 9 · 16:30K. Kos4416611113M. Szostak381411851
LAug 30 · 06:35K. Kos341171061M. Szostak4281112113
LAug 25 · 16:00K. Kos50119119102M. Szostak44311711123
LAug 22 · 14:15K. Kos491211214102M. Szostak5910111016123
WAug 22 · 08:35K. Kos43111173113M. Szostak4696111192
WAug 18 · 17:30K. Kos4211119113M. Szostak34771191
LJun 23 · 18:30K. Kos4311861172M. Szostak51911119113
WJun 15 · 20:30K. Kos46111149113M. Szostak4698111172
K. Kos10
WSep 22 · 20:30M. Szostak2.0581160K. Kos1.661113113LSep 22 · 19:30K. Patryk1.86117411113K. Kos1.8391111742LSep 22 · 18:00P. Kedzierski2.6551111113K. Kos1.33117581WSep 22 · 15:30D. Kovtanyuk2.4181240K. Kos1.441114113WSep 22 · 14:00J. Komorowicz2.257820K. Kos1.541111113WSep 21 · 22:00M. Michta1.5831080K. Kos2.201112113WSep 21 · 21:00J. Caban2.10621151K. Kos1.6011114113LSep 21 · 19:30K. Kos2.051431171K. Patryk1.6616118113LSep 21 · 17:30M. Michta1.7412611113K. Kos1.951011841WSep 21 · 15:00D. Kovtanyuk2.2041160K. Kos1.581113113
M. Szostak10
LSep 22 · 20:30M. Szostak2.0581160K. Kos1.661113113WSep 22 · 18:30J. Komorowicz1.959860M. Szostak1.741111113LSep 22 · 17:30M. Szostak2.10118571K. Patryk1.6551111113LSep 22 · 16:30P. Kedzierski2.401111113M. Szostak1.507680WSep 22 · 16:00M. Szostak1.95111187133D. Kovtanyuk1.74691111112LSep 9 · 20:30K. Kos1.771211113M. Szostak1.9310980WSep 9 · 19:30M. Szostak2.051211133K. Patryk1.68109110WSep 9 · 18:00J. Komorowicz1.74811111382M. Szostak1.951191311113LSep 9 · 16:30K. Kos1.6516611113M. Szostak2.101411851WSep 9 · 16:00M. Szostak1.49111679113P. Kedzierski2.34614111142
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.