TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ivan Jemelka vs Adam Strelec 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Ivan Jemelka
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12108111210119––
Adam Strelec
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeAdam Strelec to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Jemelka above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 83 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Adam Strelec at 54.2%
83 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Jemelka 4–3 Adam Strelec Adam Strelec has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:29What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jemelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jemelka 1422 vs Strelec 1410
Jemelka
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jemelka 20% vs Strelec 40%
Strelec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jemelka 40% vs Strelec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jemelka -3 · Strelec -1
Jemelka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jemelka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jemelka form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJemelka 1.73 / Strelec 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jemelka)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13180344
Jemelka1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 21)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 20 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Strelec2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 35 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJemelka4wins
AwayStrelec3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderJemelka leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJemelka100%3 of 3
AwayStrelec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jemelka3Strelec4n = 7Strelec took 4 of 7
S2Jemelka4Strelec3n = 7Jemelka took 4 of 7
S3Jemelka3Strelec4n = 7Strelec took 4 of 7
S4Jemelka4Strelec2n = 6Jemelka took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricJemelkaStrelecJ − SBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match40.138.0+2.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJemelkaStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 130 vs 121 / 24448.5%49.6%63 / 130 vs 121 / 244Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JemelkaJemelka 1.73/Strelec 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Jemelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jemelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 23 · 06:15I. Jemelka4312812113A. Strelec4010111091
WSep 21 · 06:10I. Jemelka54612915123A. Strelec5511101113102
WSep 15 · 09:13I. Jemelka4111118113A. Strelec29821181
LSep 15 · 07:40I. Jemelka2228120A. Strelec361111143
WAug 14 · 12:44I. Jemelka4011117113A. Strelec29461181
LAug 14 · 10:15I. Jemelka38991191A. Strelec3911116113
LAug 1 · 11:45I. Jemelka4361111782A. Strelec38112311113
I. Jemelka10
LSep 23 · 07:15P. Chlad1.73711311113I. Jemelka2.0011611982LSep 21 · 08:55J. Matus2.1011115113I. Jemelka1.65581181LSep 21 · 07:40J. Sindler1.9111611113I. Jemelka1.80911571LSep 21 · 07:10J. Matus2.2511111113I. Jemelka1.57911571WSep 21 · 06:10I. Jemelka1.73612915123A. Strelec2.0011101113102LSep 19 · 17:04I. Jemelka1.6145111192P. Chvojka2.20111197113WSep 19 · 15:40I. Jemelka1.91111198113J. Jnr1.8059111192LSep 19 · 14:40I. Jemelka1.8012111041P. Sturma1.9114412113WSep 19 · 13:40I. Jemelka1.731112123P. Chvojka2.00310100WSep 15 · 09:13A. Strelec2.63821181I. Jemelka1.4411118113
A. Strelec10
LSep 23 · 06:45J. Sindler1.7361111153A. Strelec2.001138131LSep 22 · 09:15J. Matus1.731111143A. Strelec2.0097120WSep 22 · 07:40A. Strelec1.531311113J. Sevecek2.3811470WSep 22 · 06:40A. Strelec1.83119811113J. Matus1.8391111982LSep 22 · 05:40A. Strelec1.5311691182L. Snr2.38711113113LSep 21 · 09:25A. Strelec2.00811511132J. Sindler1.73113119153WSep 21 · 08:10A. Strelec1.801012711113J. Matus1.91121011752WSep 21 · 06:40J. Sindler1.7381171172A. Strelec2.00117114113LSep 21 · 06:10I. Jemelka1.73612915123A. Strelec2.0011101113102LSep 15 · 09:13A. Strelec2.63821181I. Jemelka1.4411118113
Upcoming Matches
I. Jemelka
Nothing scheduled
A. Strelec
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