TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Adam Strelec
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111135111191315
Jaroslav Sindler
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Strelec above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 97 set 5, 13-15 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Adam Strelec 19–19 Jaroslav Sindler Dead even across their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Strelec beat Sindler 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:45What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-19 in 38
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strelec 1447 vs Sindler 1494
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strelec 60% vs Sindler 80%
Sindler
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strelec 80% vs Sindler 60%
Strelec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strelec +2 · Sindler +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sindler)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrelec 2.00 / Sindler 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sindler)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13168494
Strelec2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 34 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Sindler1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 137 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it70% 90 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrelec6wins
AwaySindler4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStrelec leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrelec100%5 of 5
AwaySindler80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strelec5Sindler5n = 10split evenly
S2Strelec3Sindler7n = 10Sindler took 7 of 10
S3Strelec7Sindler3n = 10Strelec took 7 of 10
S4Strelec4Sindler4n = 8split evenly
S5Strelec3Sindler1n = 4Strelec took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrelecSindlerStrelec − SindlerBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.638.6+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrelecSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 237 vs 420 / 80550.2%52.2%119 / 237 vs 420 / 805Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerStrelec 2.00/Sindler 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.4%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 06:40A. Strelec44117114113J. Sindler4481171172
WSep 14 · 07:40A. Strelec331111113J. Sindler257990
WSep 9 · 07:45A. Strelec44117411113J. Sindler4291111742
LSep 8 · 06:15A. Strelec229580J. Sindler331111113
WSep 2 · 06:10A. Strelec5611111111123J. Sindler50139513102
WSep 1 · 08:43A. Strelec4411139113J. Sindler358111151
LSep 1 · 07:40A. Strelec36891181J. Sindler4011117113
LAug 28 · 06:10A. Strelec4366111282J. Sindler511111810113
LAug 14 · 11:45A. Strelec32771171J. Sindler3911116113
WAug 6 · 09:13A. Strelec4211911113J. Sindler27511291
A. Strelec10
WSep 21 · 08:10A. Strelec1.801012711113J. Matus1.91121011752WSep 21 · 06:40J. Sindler1.7381171172A. Strelec2.00117114113LSep 21 · 06:10I. Jemelka1.73612915123A. Strelec2.0011101113102LSep 15 · 09:13A. Strelec2.63821181I. Jemelka1.4411118113WSep 15 · 07:40I. Jemelka1.7328120A. Strelec2.001111143WSep 15 · 07:10J. Matus1.833411101A. Strelec1.8311119123WSep 15 · 06:10A. Strelec2.001111123L. Snr1.7354100WSep 14 · 09:33J. Matus1.91111071172A. Strelec1.80212115113WSep 14 · 07:40J. Sindler1.737990A. Strelec2.001111113WSep 14 · 07:10P. Sturma2.3811118942A. Strelec1.53681111113
J. Sindler10
WSep 21 · 07:40J. Sindler1.9111611113I. Jemelka1.80911571LSep 21 · 06:40J. Sindler1.7381171172A. Strelec2.00117114113WSep 21 · 05:40J. Sindler1.67512811113J. Matus2.10111011462WSep 20 · 09:15M. Sobota2.10311110J. Sindler1.671113133WSep 20 · 07:45J. Sindler1.7311414133J. Matus2.0061112111WSep 20 · 06:45J. Sindler1.6111116123F. Mandrysz2.209811101LSep 20 · 05:45J. Sindler1.5781151192M. Sobota2.25118118113LSep 19 · 13:10J. Jnr2.087111111113J. Sindler1.5911981392LSep 19 · 11:40J. Sindler1.53117991J. Jnr2.3881111113LSep 14 · 07:40J. Sindler1.737990A. Strelec2.001111113
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