TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Ponomarenko vs Pavel Plakushchyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
1.11
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117411117911511
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
6.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 85.8% is still 85.8%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
85.8%
85.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 87 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 85.8%
87 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 2–3 Pavel Plakushchyi Serhii Ponomarenko has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:39What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Ponomarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 2104 vs Plakushchyi 1659
Ponomarenko
Wrong
both rated, 445 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Plakushchyi 60%
Plakushchyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 70% vs Plakushchyi 50%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +1 · Plakushchyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 86% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (17%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.11 / Plakushchyi 6.00
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13180118
Ponomarenko1.11
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite88% won 307 of 349
Up 2–0, closes it100% 202 of 203
Up 1–0, closes it96% 256 of 268
Plakushchyi6.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 89 of 257
Down 0–1, comes back16% 25 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePonomarenko2wins
AwayPlakushchyi3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayPlakushchyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko1Plakushchyi4n = 5Plakushchyi took 4 of 5
S2Ponomarenko2Plakushchyi3n = 5Plakushchyi took 3 of 5
S3Ponomarenko3Plakushchyi2n = 5Ponomarenko took 3 of 5
S4Ponomarenko2Plakushchyi2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoPlakushchyiPonomarenko − PlakushchyiBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match34.839.6−4.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime794 / 876 vs 319 / 71490.6%44.7%794 / 876 vs 319 / 714Avg sets wonper match2.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.335.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.11/Plakushchyi 6.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
86.8%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 23 · 02:25S. Ponomarenko24331261P. Plakushchyi43111110113
WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko45113911113P. Plakushchyi4051111672
WSep 3 · 24:55S. Ponomarenko3951211113P. Plakushchyi381110981
LAug 26 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko4371111682P. Plakushchyi44119211113
LAug 25 · 23:55S. Ponomarenko236890P. Plakushchyi331111113
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 23 · 12:35S. Ponomarenko1.051211113O. Kovalchuk8.5010890LSep 23 · 04:25S. Ponomarenko1.069111071E. Rubtsov8.0011612113LSep 23 · 02:25P. Plakushchyi5.50111110113S. Ponomarenko1.13331261LSep 23 · 24:25A. Chepurnyi3.5011119113S. Ponomarenko1.28661191WSep 22 · 23:25S. Ponomarenko1.1011121111113V. Kovalenko6.5061413592WSep 22 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk7.0091111692S. Ponomarenko1.08116511113WSep 21 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko1.02101111113S. Kushnirenko10.50128211WSep 21 · 16:00S. Balabei7.008760S. Ponomarenko1.081111113WSep 21 · 14:30D. Yurkov8.501197111S. Ponomarenko1.0571111133WSep 21 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko11.001211331S. Ponomarenko1.0214711113
P. Plakushchyi10
LSep 23 · 15:05P. Plakushchyi1.5792110O. Kovalchuk2.251111133LSep 23 · 13:05P. Plakushchyi1.677990V. Kovalenko2.101111113LSep 23 · 03:25A. Chepurnyi1.611111113P. Plakushchyi2.208790WSep 23 · 02:25P. Plakushchyi5.50111110113S. Ponomarenko1.13331261WSep 23 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi1.7311911113V. Kovalenko2.00811961WSep 22 · 23:55P. Plakushchyi1.531411113O. Kovalchuk2.3812870WSep 22 · 21:55P. Plakushchyi1.441411113E. Rubtsov2.6312590LSep 21 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi7.007780O. Dukhovenko1.081111113LSep 21 · 01:55O. Mishchenko1.9111116113P. Plakushchyi1.80891171WSep 21 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi1.911111143M. Smyrnov1.8074120
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