TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Artem Chepurnyi vs Serhii Ponomarenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Artem Chepurnyi
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116116911119––
Serhii Ponomarenko
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 20Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 20
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:23 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtem Chepurnyi above · Serhii Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 75.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Artem Chepurnyi 4–1 Serhii Ponomarenko Serhii Ponomarenko has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:23What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Ponomarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Chepurnyi
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chepurnyi 1753 vs Ponomarenko 2163
Ponomarenko
Wrong
both rated, 410 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chepurnyi 60% vs Ponomarenko 100%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chepurnyi 40% vs Ponomarenko 100%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chepurnyi +1 · Ponomarenko +20
Ponomarenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChepurnyi 3.50 / Ponomarenko 1.28
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+2.2pp
Setka Cup · #13176362
Chepurnyi3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 45 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back18% 12 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Ponomarenko1.28
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 20
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite88% won 305 of 345
Up 2–0, closes it100% 202 of 203
Up 1–0, closes it96% 254 of 266
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeChepurnyi4wins
AwayPonomarenko1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderChepurnyi leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChepurnyi100%4 of 4
AwayPonomarenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chepurnyi4Ponomarenko1n = 5Chepurnyi took 4 of 5
S2Chepurnyi2Ponomarenko3n = 5Ponomarenko took 3 of 5
S3Chepurnyi4Ponomarenko1n = 5Chepurnyi took 4 of 5
S4Chepurnyi3Ponomarenko1n = 4Chepurnyi took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricChepurnyiPonomarenkoC − PBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match43.839.8+4.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChepurnyiPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime548 / 931 vs 793 / 87358.9%90.8%548 / 931 vs 793 / 873Avg sets wonper match2.22.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoChepurnyi 3.50/Ponomarenko 1.28
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.3%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chepurnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 23 · 24:25A. Chepurnyi4211119113S. Ponomarenko32661191
WAug 21 · 18:36A. Chepurnyi331111113S. Ponomarenko246990
WAug 21 · 14:55A. Chepurnyi4516711113S. Ponomarenko421411891
WAug 14 · 17:25A. Chepurnyi44114126113S. Ponomarenko44511101172
LAug 8 · 23:55A. Chepurnyi551410111192S. Ponomarenko57161299113
A. Chepurnyi10
WSep 22 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi1.361110611133E. Rubtsov3.00512116112LSep 22 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi1.36811981V. Kovalenko3.0011511113LSep 21 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi1.4431111772M. Smyrnov2.63119511113WSep 21 · 02:25O. Gavryshko1.8312050A. Chepurnyi1.831411113WSep 21 · 24:25O. Mishchenko2.631181171A. Chepurnyi1.4471113113LSep 20 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.6367110O. Dukhovenko1.441111133LSep 20 · 22:25P. Plakushchyi2.20131110113A. Chepurnyi1.611171271WSep 20 · 03:55O. Mishchenko2.6381111742A. Chepurnyi1.44115311113LSep 20 · 02:55O. Gavryshko1.835111011113A. Chepurnyi1.8311812582LSep 20 · 01:25Y. Kryvorotko1.611113113A. Chepurnyi2.2091180
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 22 · 23:25S. Ponomarenko1.1011121111113V. Kovalenko6.5061413592WSep 22 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk7.0091111692S. Ponomarenko1.08116511113WSep 21 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko1.02101111113S. Kushnirenko10.50128211WSep 21 · 16:00S. Balabei7.008760S. Ponomarenko1.081111113WSep 21 · 14:30D. Yurkov8.501197111S. Ponomarenko1.0571111133WSep 21 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko11.001211331S. Ponomarenko1.0214711113WSep 21 · 12:00R. Horokh4.501591191S. Ponomarenko1.1717118113WSep 19 · 10:04I. Shyndel10.509660S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 19 · 08:30S. Kushnirenko11.009960S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 19 · 07:30S. Ponomarenko1.0511119113V. Komar8.50681161
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