TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vedmoch vs Jiri Plachy 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Michal Vedmoch
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311411811811––
Jiri Plachy
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:25 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Plachy to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jiri Plachy at 57.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 51–51 Jiri Plachy Dead even across their 102 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Plachy beat Vedmoch 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:25What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vedmoch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-51 in 102
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1502 vs Plachy 1499
Vedmoch
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 20% vs Plachy 40%
Plachy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 20% vs Plachy 50%
Plachy
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch +1 · Plachy -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Vedmoch) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 1.67 / Plachy 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Vedmoch)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13177479
Vedmoch1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 189 of 297
Up 2–0, closes it97% 95 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it80% 145 of 182
Plachy2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 138 of 343
Down 0–1, comes back21% 42 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVedmoch7wins
AwayPlachy3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVedmoch leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVedmoch75%6 of 8
AwayPlachyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch8Plachy2n = 10Vedmoch took 8 of 10
S2Vedmoch4Plachy6n = 10Plachy took 6 of 10
S3Vedmoch6Plachy4n = 10Vedmoch took 6 of 10
S4Vedmoch6Plachy3n = 9Vedmoch took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVedmochPlachyV − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.734.2+5.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime696 / 1309 vs 735 / 158953.2%46.3%696 / 1309 vs 735 / 1589Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochVedmoch 1.67/Plachy 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Plachy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 07:30M. Vedmoch367101451J. Plachy46111212113
WSep 4 · 01:00M. Vedmoch3911611113J. Plachy29411681
WSep 3 · 13:29M. Vedmoch331111113J. Plachy187650
LSep 3 · 12:00M. Vedmoch31117941J. Plachy4291111113
WSep 2 · 13:30M. Vedmoch4011711113J. Plachy25311651
WSep 2 · 10:30M. Vedmoch47111168113J. Plachy3634111172
WSep 2 · 09:30M. Vedmoch4291111113J. Plachy30115861
LSep 2 · 07:30M. Vedmoch51119121182J. Plachy48711145113
WSep 1 · 09:30M. Vedmoch3812114113J. Plachy351091151
WSep 1 · 06:30M. Vedmoch4011511133J. Plachy335116111
M. Vedmoch10
LSep 23 · 11:00K. Darin2.50117811113M. Vedmoch1.5041111772WSep 23 · 09:00P. Zmuda1.4061140M. Vedmoch2.751113113LSep 23 · 08:00M. Vedmoch2.63311371P. Zmuda1.4411511113LSep 23 · 07:30J. Plachy2.20111212113M. Vedmoch1.617101451LSep 23 · 06:00M. Vedmoch1.91312421R. Pavelka1.80111011113LSep 22 · 17:00P. Zmuda1.571111113M. Vedmoch2.258640LSep 22 · 16:00T. Holik1.67101111113M. Vedmoch2.10126931LSep 22 · 15:00P. Zmuda1.731211113M. Vedmoch2.0010890LSep 22 · 14:30M. Vedmoch2.005770M. Volf1.731111113LSep 22 · 02:30A. Hlawatschke1.6711116113M. Vedmoch2.10791161
J. Plachy10
LSep 23 · 09:30R. Pavelka1.531111123J. Plachy2.3894100LSep 23 · 08:30R. Pavelka1.61411139113J. Plachy2.20119111182WSep 23 · 07:30J. Plachy2.20111212113M. Vedmoch1.617101451WSep 23 · 06:30P. Zmuda1.4471131192J. Plachy2.63119115113LSep 21 · 17:30J. Plachy1.91511891L. Babicka1.8011311113WSep 21 · 16:00J. Plachy1.531112113K. Darin2.3881050LSep 21 · 15:30L. Babicka1.9111146113J. Plachy1.809121161WSep 21 · 14:00J. Plachy1.611111113Y. Holovatiuk2.209880WSep 21 · 13:28J. Plachy1.8011101111113L. Babicka1.9113126462LSep 21 · 12:00K. Darin2.38811311113J. Plachy1.5311711502
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