TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Karol Strowski vs Krystian Kolodziej 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Karol Strowski
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113119711511118
Krystian Kolodziej
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:43 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeKrystian Kolodziej to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarol Strowski above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 87 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Krystian Kolodziej at 58.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Karol Strowski 64–52 Krystian Kolodziej Krystian Kolodziej has won 52 of their 116 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:43What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kolodziej
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
64-52 in 116
Strowski
Correct
gap of 12 in 116, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strowski 1833 vs Kolodziej 1788
Strowski
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strowski 60% vs Kolodziej 20%
Strowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strowski 60% vs Kolodziej 20%
Strowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strowski -2 · Kolodziej -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolodziej) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrowski 2.10 / Kolodziej 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolodziej)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13177377
Strowski2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 77 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back28% 32 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Kolodziej1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite76% won 451 of 593
Up 2–0, closes it98% 279 of 286
Up 1–0, closes it87% 370 of 425
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrowski5wins
AwayKolodziej5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrowski57.1%4 of 7
AwayKolodziej66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strowski7Kolodziej3n = 10Strowski took 7 of 10
S2Strowski4Kolodziej6n = 10Kolodziej took 6 of 10
S3Strowski6Kolodziej4n = 10Strowski took 6 of 10
S4Strowski3Kolodziej5n = 8Kolodziej took 5 of 8
S5Strowski2Kolodziej3n = 5Kolodziej took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrowskiKolodziejS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.541.1−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrowskiKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime806 / 1386 vs 1277 / 189658.2%67.4%806 / 1386 vs 1277 / 1896Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejStrowski 2.10/Kolodziej 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Strowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 10:25K. Strowski45111175113K. Kolodziej4239111182
WSep 11 · 10:00K. Strowski47131111123K. Kolodziej391568101
WSep 1 · 10:50K. Strowski49111377113K. Kolodziej49911111172
LAug 31 · 18:30K. Strowski44115111162K. Kolodziej52811139113
LAug 14 · 17:40K. Strowski3911311772K. Kolodziej47711711113
LAug 14 · 13:25K. Strowski4013211682K. Kolodziej481111411113
LAug 10 · 13:20K. Strowski2511860K. Kolodziej351311113
WJul 31 · 17:20K. Strowski341111123K. Kolodziej2569100
LJul 30 · 19:40K. Strowski36791191K. Kolodziej3711114113
WJul 30 · 10:50K. Strowski46121211113K. Kolodziej371014581
K. Strowski10
LSep 23 · 09:40J. Zandecki1.40111111113K. Strowski2.75132481LSep 23 · 08:30K. Strowski1.6816611482G. Poliniewicz2.081411911113WSep 23 · 06:50K. Strowski1.401112113J. Kwapis2.7571040WSep 23 · 05:35K. Strowski2.0511111111113K. Wloczko1.6613591352WSep 23 · 04:00K. Strowski1.41116115113K. Kapik2.6091181142LSep 23 · 03:00K. Strowski1.54611111042D. Prokopcov2.25115812113WSep 22 · 14:15K. Strowski2.25128711123J. Kuzmicz1.571011116102WSep 22 · 12:35P. Klos1.8510850K. Strowski1.851211113WSep 22 · 11:45P. Jendrzejewski2.705660K. Strowski1.411111113LSep 22 · 10:55K. Strowski1.55511141D. Prokopcov2.2511114113
K. Kolodziej10
LSep 23 · 11:15J. Kosowski1.3331111113K. Kolodziej3.25117661LSep 23 · 09:00A. Grela1.44111112113K. Kolodziej2.63431481WSep 22 · 14:10K. Kolodziej2.251311113J. Braun1.5711670LSep 22 · 12:30G. Felkel1.531111113K. Kolodziej2.389990LSep 22 · 11:40J. Kosowski1.331111113K. Kolodziej3.256390LSep 22 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.1071210151D. Michna1.67111012173LSep 22 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.38101060A. Wiecek1.531212113LSep 11 · 15:25M. Olejnik1.531011811123K. Kolodziej2.38127114102WSep 11 · 14:35K. Wloczko2.251311661K. Kolodziej1.5715811113LSep 11 · 12:30J. Kuzmicz1.73111199113K. Kolodziej2.0097111182
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