TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Karol Strowski vs Krzysztof Kapik 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Karol Strowski
Home
1.41
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119611118511114
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
2.60
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:57 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeKarol Strowski to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
119611118511114
H2H Karol Strowski 68–31 Krzysztof Kapik Krzysztof Kapik has won 31 of their 99 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:57What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (65%)
Strowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
68-31 in 99
Strowski
Correct
gap of 37 in 99, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strowski 1823 vs Kapik 1714
Strowski
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strowski 60% vs Kapik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strowski 60% vs Kapik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strowski -1 · Kapik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Strowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrowski 1.41 / Kapik 2.60
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Strowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13181772
Strowski1.41
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 247 of 359
Up 2–0, closes it96% 96 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it85% 174 of 206
Kapik2.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 180 of 395
Down 0–1, comes back25% 53 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrowski5wins
AwayKapik5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrowski83.3%5 of 6
AwayKapik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strowski6Kapik4n = 10Strowski took 6 of 10
S2Strowski2Kapik8n = 10Kapik took 8 of 10
S3Strowski5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S4Strowski5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S5Strowski4Kapik2n = 6Strowski took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrowskiKapikS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.944.4−2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrowskiKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime802 / 1380 vs 1121 / 210058.1%53.4%802 / 1380 vs 1121 / 2100Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrowskiStrowski 1.41/Kapik 2.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Strowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Strowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 18:30K. Strowski4281111662K. Kapik50118911113
WAug 14 · 20:30K. Strowski50118119113K. Kapik4581171182
WJul 30 · 18:30K. Strowski47113913113K. Kapik51911111192
LJul 20 · 17:20K. Strowski3811661142K. Kapik50911118113
WJul 13 · 15:25K. Strowski45111211113K. Kapik41914991
LJul 7 · 17:20K. Strowski34781181K. Kapik3911116113
WJul 6 · 18:30K. Strowski49127712113K. Kapik491011111072
WJun 30 · 17:20K. Strowski49117911113K. Kapik4181111472
LJun 23 · 16:30K. Strowski33911491K. Kapik3711411113
LJun 17 · 18:30K. Strowski32571191K. Kapik4111118113
K. Strowski10
LSep 23 · 03:00K. Strowski1.54611111042D. Prokopcov2.25115812113WSep 22 · 14:15K. Strowski2.25128711123J. Kuzmicz1.571011116102WSep 22 · 12:35P. Klos1.8510850K. Strowski1.851211113WSep 22 · 11:45P. Jendrzejewski2.705660K. Strowski1.411111113LSep 22 · 10:55K. Strowski1.55511141D. Prokopcov2.2511114113LSep 22 · 09:45K. Strowski1.957860M. Murawski1.761111113WSep 22 · 08:05P. Jendrzejewski2.7011811762K. Strowski1.37811911113LSep 22 · 07:15P. Klos1.85111198113K. Strowski1.8599111172WSep 22 · 05:15K. Wisniewski3.307101171K. Strowski1.2111126113WSep 22 · 04:25D. Prokopcov2.41761181K. Strowski1.4411114113
K. Kapik10
WSep 23 · 03:20K. Kapik1.73911811113G. Poliniewicz2.0011811992LSep 21 · 13:50M. Rutkowski1.8011119113K. Kapik1.85861191WSep 21 · 13:00M. Sklensky1.416640K. Kapik2.601111113WSep 21 · 12:10K. Kapik2.0011119113P. Jendrzejewski1.72771171LSep 21 · 10:30K. Kapik1.751191271K. Wisniewski1.9061114113WSep 21 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz1.86131711162K. Kapik1.831119119113WSep 21 · 08:30M. Rutkowski1.85651151K. Kapik1.8011118113LSep 21 · 07:15K. Kapik1.719950K. Wisniewski2.001111113LSep 21 · 06:00M. Sklensky1.411111133K. Kapik2.6049110WSep 21 · 04:50P. Jendrzejewski1.85811981K. Kapik1.8011711113
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