TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118116911119––
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
118116911119––
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 90–84 Krzysztof Kapik Krzysztof Kapik has won 84 of their 174 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Kapik beat Rutkowski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:25What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
90-84 in 174
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 6 in 174, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1692 vs Kapik 1717
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 60% vs Kapik 80%
Kapik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 40% vs Kapik 70%
Kapik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski -1 · Kapik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.80 / Kapik 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rutkowski)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13167674
Rutkowski1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 360 of 505
Up 2–0, closes it98% 177 of 181
Up 1–0, closes it89% 284 of 318
Kapik1.85
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 180 of 393
Down 0–1, comes back26% 54 of 211
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski4wins
AwayKapik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski100%3 of 3
AwayKapik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski3Kapik7n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S2Rutkowski4Kapik6n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S3Rutkowski3Kapik7n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S4Rutkowski2Kapik3n = 5Kapik took 3 of 5
S5Rutkowski3Kapik1n = 4Rutkowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiKapikR − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.538.7−5.2per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime809 / 1437 vs 1130 / 212056.3%53.3%809 / 1437 vs 1130 / 2120Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.80/Kapik 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 08:30M. Rutkowski27651151K. Kapik4111118113
LSep 17 · 10:05M. Rutkowski174760K. Kapik331111113
WSep 16 · 09:45M. Rutkowski501111125113K. Kapik4889141162
LSep 14 · 12:35M. Rutkowski188640K. Kapik331111113
WSep 9 · 23:20M. Rutkowski541113118113K. Kapik4691571142
WSep 9 · 24:10M. Rutkowski351113113K. Kapik2791170
LSep 8 · 19:15M. Rutkowski236980K. Kapik331111113
WSep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski49714413113K. Kapik531112111182
LSep 7 · 16:55M. Rutkowski2581070K. Kapik341112113
LSep 1 · 21:00M. Rutkowski3731141182K. Kapik39112114113
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 21 · 12:35M. Rutkowski1.90119111172G. Poliniewicz1.80131198113WSep 21 · 11:20M. Rutkowski1.651111113K. Wisniewski2.058360WSep 21 · 10:05M. Sklensky1.5474131192M. Rutkowski2.351111117113WSep 21 · 09:20M. Rutkowski1.801110811123P. Jendrzejewski1.90612116102LSep 21 · 08:30M. Rutkowski1.85651151K. Kapik1.8011118113LSep 21 · 06:50M. Rutkowski2.403260M. Sklensky1.501111113LSep 21 · 05:35M. Rutkowski1.80611661P. Jendrzejewski1.9011711113LSep 21 · 04:00M. Rutkowski2.408660K. Wloczko1.501111113WSep 21 · 03:00M. Rutkowski1.57111272113K. Wisniewski2.25710111162LSep 18 · 14:15M. Rutkowski3.307890M. Olejnik1.271111113
K. Kapik10
WSep 21 · 13:00M. Sklensky1.416640K. Kapik2.601111113WSep 21 · 12:10K. Kapik2.0011119113P. Jendrzejewski1.72771171LSep 21 · 10:30K. Kapik1.751191271K. Wisniewski1.9061114113WSep 21 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz1.86131711162K. Kapik1.831119119113WSep 21 · 08:30M. Rutkowski1.85651151K. Kapik1.8011118113LSep 21 · 07:15K. Kapik1.719950K. Wisniewski2.001111113LSep 21 · 06:00M. Sklensky1.411111133K. Kapik2.6049110WSep 21 · 04:50P. Jendrzejewski1.85811981K. Kapik1.8011711113WSep 21 · 03:20K. Wloczko1.4191111642K. Kapik2.60117611113WSep 18 · 08:05J. Stecyszyn1.87117891K. Kapik1.8361111113
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