TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
1.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1169111214711––
Karol Wisniewski
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
1169111214711––
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 138–123 Karol Wisniewski Karol Wisniewski has won 123 of their 261 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Wisniewski beat Kapik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:26What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (52%)
Kapik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
138-123 in 261
Kapik
Wrong
gap of 15 in 261, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1702 vs Wisniewski 1611
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 60% vs Wisniewski 40%
Kapik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 60% vs Wisniewski 30%
Kapik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik +2 · Wisniewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wisniewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.75 / Wisniewski 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kapik)+1.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13167456
Kapik1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 217 of 351
Up 2–0, closes it95% 102 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it78% 145 of 186
Wisniewski1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 210 of 552
Down 0–1, comes back19% 64 of 343
Down 0–2, comes back4% 8 of 209
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik5wins
AwayWisniewski5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik71.4%5 of 7
AwayWisniewski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik7Wisniewski3n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S2Kapik3Wisniewski7n = 10Wisniewski took 7 of 10
S3Kapik4Wisniewski6n = 10Wisniewski took 6 of 10
S4Kapik3Wisniewski2n = 5Kapik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikWisniewskiK − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.233.4+1.8per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikWisniewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1128 / 2117 vs 979 / 217653.3%45%1128 / 2117 vs 979 / 2176Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKapik 1.75/Wisniewski 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wisniewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 07:15K. Kapik239950K. Wisniewski331111113
LSep 18 · 03:00K. Kapik259970K. Wisniewski331111113
WSep 17 · 04:00K. Kapik47118116113K. Wisniewski4391171152
WSep 16 · 07:15K. Kapik44111111113K. Wisniewski35913581
WSep 15 · 06:25K. Kapik331111113K. Wisniewski187740
WAug 31 · 11:20K. Kapik4313118113K. Wisniewski331131181
LAug 28 · 10:55K. Kapik248790K. Wisniewski331111113
WAug 17 · 09:45K. Kapik341111123K. Wisniewski2477100
LAug 14 · 22:50K. Kapik4411981152K. Wisniewski43711113113
LAug 13 · 23:20K. Kapik351110591K. Wisniewski3951211113
K. Kapik10
WSep 21 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz1.86131711162K. Kapik1.831119119113WSep 21 · 08:30M. Rutkowski1.85651151K. Kapik1.8011118113LSep 21 · 07:15K. Kapik1.719950K. Wisniewski2.001111113LSep 21 · 06:00M. Sklensky1.411111133K. Kapik2.6049110WSep 21 · 04:50P. Jendrzejewski1.85811981K. Kapik1.8011711113WSep 21 · 03:20K. Wloczko1.4191111642K. Kapik2.60117611113WSep 18 · 08:05J. Stecyszyn1.87117891K. Kapik1.8361111113LSep 18 · 07:15M. Sklensky1.541111113K. Kapik2.252670LSep 18 · 05:15K. Wloczko1.50111158113K. Kapik2.4063111132WSep 18 · 04:25D. Kostal2.059116151K. Kapik1.6811611173
K. Wisniewski10
WSep 21 · 09:00M. Sklensky1.40551191K. Wisniewski2.6511113113LSep 21 · 08:05P. Jendrzejewski1.65129145133K. Wisniewski2.0510111211112WSep 21 · 07:15K. Kapik1.719950K. Wisniewski2.001111113LSep 21 · 05:15K. Wloczko1.3611711113K. Wisniewski2.95711681LSep 21 · 04:25M. Sklensky1.351511113K. Wisniewski2.9513480LSep 21 · 03:00M. Rutkowski1.57111272113K. Wisniewski2.25710111162WSep 18 · 13:50M. Sklensky1.37101191192K. Wisniewski2.80124118113LSep 18 · 13:00A. Daniel1.5011122123K. Wisniewski2.3551011101LSep 18 · 12:10K. Wisniewski1.68111113672D. Kostal2.05351511113LSep 18 · 10:30K. Wisniewski4.55661171M. Olejnik1.1011119113
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