TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Kushnirenko vs Serhii Balabei 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Serhii Kushnirenko
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911211811––
Serhii Balabei
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kushnirenko above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 73.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kushnirenko 27–96 Serhii Balabei Serhii Kushnirenko has won 27 of their 123 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:00What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Balabei
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-96 in 123
Balabei
Correct
gap of 69 in 123, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kushnirenko 1896 vs Balabei 1916
Balabei
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kushnirenko 60% vs Balabei 20%
Kushnirenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kushnirenko 50% vs Balabei 30%
Kushnirenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kushnirenko -1 · Balabei -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Balabei) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKushnirenko 3.25 / Balabei 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 73%
Edge (Balabei)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13172975
Kushnirenko3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 137 of 406
Down 0–1, comes back18% 45 of 247
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 134
Balabei1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 194 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it96% 95 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it86% 139 of 162
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKushnirenko4wins
AwayBalabei6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKushnirenko75%3 of 4
AwayBalabei83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kushnirenko4Balabei6n = 10Balabei took 6 of 10
S2Kushnirenko4Balabei6n = 10Balabei took 6 of 10
S3Kushnirenko3Balabei7n = 10Balabei took 7 of 10
S4Kushnirenko4Balabei3n = 7Kushnirenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKushnirenkoBalabeiK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.137.0−3.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKushnirenkoBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 794 vs 509 / 100441.3%50.7%328 / 794 vs 509 / 1004Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiKushnirenko 3.25/Balabei 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko43101111113S. Balabei29124491
WSep 18 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko4111118113S. Balabei29881121
LSep 16 · 17:29S. Kushnirenko49513111192S. Balabei531111137113
WSep 16 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko4011711113S. Balabei31611591
LSep 15 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2181120S. Balabei351113113
LSep 14 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko25117521S. Balabei4291111113
LSep 11 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko27611731S. Balabei4011711113
WAug 31 · 13:30S. Kushnirenko46116117113S. Balabei4551191192
LAug 26 · 07:00S. Kushnirenko219480S. Balabei331111113
LAug 25 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko189450S. Balabei331111113
S. Kushnirenko10
LSep 21 · 17:29S. Ponomarenko1.02101111113S. Kushnirenko10.50128211WSep 21 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.501111113R. Horokh1.509580WSep 21 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.20119119113D. Yurkov1.6191131172WSep 21 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.25101111113S. Balabei1.33124491LSep 21 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko11.001211331S. Ponomarenko1.0214711113WSep 19 · 10:34D. Kryshtal1.61911161S. Kushnirenko2.2011811113LSep 19 · 09:30S. Kushnirenko2.2011411462D. Kryshtal1.61611711113LSep 19 · 08:30S. Kushnirenko11.009960S. Ponomarenko1.021111113LSep 19 · 07:00S. Kushnirenko1.916340I. Shyndel1.801111113WSep 19 · 06:00S. Kushnirenko2.0011119123V. Komar1.738811101
S. Balabei10
LSep 22 · 12:00R. Horokh1.801111113S. Balabei1.915860WSep 21 · 16:58S. Balabei1.8312114133R. Horokh1.8310711111LSep 21 · 16:00S. Balabei7.008760S. Ponomarenko1.081111113LSep 21 · 15:00R. Horokh1.831111113S. Balabei1.835860LSep 21 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.25101111113S. Balabei1.33124491WSep 21 · 12:30D. Yurkov2.381112121542S. Balabei1.537141413113LSep 18 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko3.2511118113S. Balabei1.33881121WSep 18 · 15:00S. Balabei2.75913137113V. Komar1.401111111162LSep 18 · 13:30S. Balabei1.50117771D. Kryshtal2.5021111113LSep 18 · 12:00S. Balabei7.003260S. Ponomarenko1.081111113
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