TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Horokh vs Serhii Balabei 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Roman Horokh
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118116––––
Serhii Balabei
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Horokh to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Horokh above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 52 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Roman Horokh at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Roman Horokh 217–125 Serhii Balabei Serhii Balabei has won 125 of their 342 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:51What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Horokh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
217-125 in 342
Horokh
Correct
gap of 92 in 342, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horokh 1919 vs Balabei 1931
Balabei
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horokh 40% vs Balabei 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horokh 40% vs Balabei 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horokh -2 · Balabei +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Horokh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorokh 1.80 / Balabei 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Horokh)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13172925
Horokh1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 296 of 439
Up 2–0, closes it96% 161 of 167
Up 1–0, closes it83% 226 of 273
Balabei1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 45 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back19% 21 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorokh5wins
AwayBalabei5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorokh66.7%4 of 6
AwayBalabei75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horokh6Balabei4n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S2Horokh5Balabei5n = 10split evenly
S3Horokh8Balabei2n = 10Horokh took 8 of 10
S4Horokh1Balabei6n = 7Balabei took 6 of 7
S5Horokh2Balabei2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorokhBalabeiH − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.538.2+2.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorokhBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime690 / 1223 vs 509 / 100356.4%50.8%690 / 1223 vs 509 / 1003Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorokhHorokh 1.80/Balabei 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Horokh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Horokh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 16:58R. Horokh3910711111S. Balabei4012114133
WSep 21 · 15:00R. Horokh331111113S. Balabei195860
WSep 16 · 15:00R. Horokh42631111113S. Balabei3711115462
WSep 15 · 15:00R. Horokh331111113S. Balabei214890
LSep 14 · 17:33R. Horokh4215511562S. Balabei551311911113
LSep 14 · 15:00R. Horokh53151111161S. Balabei5417136183
WSep 11 · 12:00R. Horokh331111113S. Balabei219750
WAug 31 · 12:00R. Horokh531115610113S. Balabei50513111292
LAug 29 · 08:30R. Horokh31611771S. Balabei3911611113
LAug 28 · 15:00R. Horokh4611811972S. Balabei46611711113
R. Horokh10
LSep 21 · 16:58S. Balabei1.8312114133R. Horokh1.8310711111LSep 21 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.501111113R. Horokh1.509580WSep 21 · 15:00R. Horokh1.831111113S. Balabei1.835860WSep 21 · 13:30R. Horokh1.611111113D. Yurkov2.208970LSep 21 · 12:00R. Horokh4.501591191S. Ponomarenko1.1717118113LSep 16 · 16:59D. Kryshtal1.9111513113R. Horokh1.805111161LSep 16 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.501219113R. Horokh1.50101750WSep 16 · 15:00R. Horokh1.91631111113S. Balabei1.8011115462LSep 16 · 13:30R. Horokh1.4411791172D. Kryshtal2.63911116113WSep 16 · 12:00R. Horokh1.141111113S. Kiilo5.004760
S. Balabei10
WSep 21 · 16:58S. Balabei1.8312114133R. Horokh1.8310711111LSep 21 · 16:00S. Balabei7.008760S. Ponomarenko1.081111113LSep 21 · 15:00R. Horokh1.831111113S. Balabei1.835860LSep 21 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.25101111113S. Balabei1.33124491WSep 21 · 12:30D. Yurkov2.381112121542S. Balabei1.537141413113LSep 18 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko3.2511118113S. Balabei1.33881121WSep 18 · 15:00S. Balabei2.75913137113V. Komar1.401111111162LSep 18 · 13:30S. Balabei1.50117771D. Kryshtal2.5021111113LSep 18 · 12:00S. Balabei7.003260S. Ponomarenko1.081111113LSep 16 · 15:00R. Horokh1.91631111113S. Balabei1.8011115462
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