TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Jan Manhal Jr
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611118611911––
Radek Neterda
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Manhal Jr above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Radek Neterda at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jan Manhal Jr 2–3 Radek Neterda Jan Manhal Jr has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:40What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Neterda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1461 vs Neterda 1492
Neterda
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Neterda 20%
Jr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Neterda 30%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Neterda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Neterda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.10 / Neterda 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Neterda)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13168746
Jr2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 13 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back36% 5 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Neterda1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 59 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it74% 42 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJr2wins
AwayNeterda3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderNeterda leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNeterda100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr2Neterda3n = 5Neterda took 3 of 5
S2Jr0Neterda5n = 5Neterda took 5 of 5
S3Jr0Neterda5n = 5Neterda took 5 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away360%
These 5 meetings
MetricJrNeterdaJ − NBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match33.036.4−3.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime28 / 63 vs 216 / 42944.4%50.4%28 / 63 vs 216 / 429Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaJr 2.10/Neterda 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Neterda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 19 · 10:05J. Jr51119911113R. Neterda3831111672
LSep 16 · 17:44J. Jr2375110R. Neterda351111133
LSep 16 · 14:05J. Jr196850R. Neterda331111113
WSep 13 · 07:05J. Jr481151011113R. Neterda4261112762
LSep 4 · 15:05J. Jr2491050R. Neterda341112113
J. Jr10
WSep 21 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.4481171262J. Jr2.631141110113LSep 19 · 13:40J. Jr2.50119881J. Ruzicka1.5071111113LSep 19 · 12:35M. Flesar2.1011411113J. Jr1.67811291WSep 19 · 11:35J. Jr2.63511611123J. Ruzicka1.44118117102WSep 19 · 10:05R. Neterda1.5731111672J. Jr2.25119911113LSep 16 · 17:44R. Neterda1.671111133J. Jr2.1075110WSep 16 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.80116961J. Jr1.9181111113WSep 16 · 15:35J. Jr1.83115711123L. Vana1.83811119102LSep 16 · 14:05R. Neterda1.911111113J. Jr1.806850LSep 13 · 13:10M. Chmelicek1.806121112113J. Jr1.91111061492
R. Neterda10
LSep 21 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.57159118113R. Neterda2.25131171162LSep 21 · 14:35R. Neterda2.38451181L. Vosyka1.5311118113WSep 20 · 21:14J. Kabelka2.38116481R. Neterda1.5381111113LSep 20 · 20:05R. Neterda1.833650L. Vosyka1.831111113LSep 20 · 19:05R. Neterda1.401311771J. Kabelka2.7515811113LSep 20 · 18:05R. Neterda1.50371161M. Chmelicek2.5011118113WSep 19 · 13:10R. Neterda1.3611116113M. Flesar2.90731161LSep 19 · 10:05R. Neterda1.5731111672J. Jr2.25119911113WSep 16 · 17:44R. Neterda1.671111133J. Jr2.1075110WSep 16 · 14:05R. Neterda1.911111113J. Jr1.806850
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