TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Jan Ruzicka
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111147111210611
Jan Manhal Jr
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:34 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · Jan Manhal Jr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jan Ruzicka at 55.2%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 5–3 Jan Manhal Jr Jan Manhal Jr has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:34What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ruzicka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Ruzicka
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1639 vs Jr 1444
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 195 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 50% vs Jr 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +1 · Jr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.44 / Jr 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Ruzicka)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13168226
Ruzicka1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 89 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it93% 50 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it84% 70 of 83
Jr2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 13 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back36% 5 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeRuzicka5wins
AwayJr3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderRuzicka leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka60%3 of 5
AwayJr33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka5Jr3n = 8Ruzicka took 5 of 8
S2Ruzicka3Jr5n = 8Jr took 5 of 8
S3Ruzicka7Jr1n = 8Ruzicka took 7 of 8
S4Ruzicka3Jr4n = 7Jr took 4 of 7
S5Ruzicka2Jr2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricRuzickaJrR − JBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match40.438.2+2.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaJrBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 440 vs 27 / 6252.5%43.6%231 / 440 vs 27 / 62Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.44/Jr 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 19 · 13:40J. Ruzicka4071111113J. Jr36119881
LSep 19 · 11:35J. Ruzicka47118117102J. Jr45511611123
WSep 12 · 07:05J. Ruzicka44111111113J. Jr39139891
WAug 23 · 07:05J. Ruzicka331111113J. Jr197570
LAug 13 · 15:35J. Ruzicka42410111162J. Jr42111235113
WAug 6 · 17:14J. Ruzicka47116118113J. Jr3951181142
WAug 6 · 15:05J. Ruzicka42116113113J. Jr4571181182
LJul 26 · 09:33J. Ruzicka28113681J. Jr4181111113
J. Ruzicka10
LSep 21 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.61781171L. Vosyka2.2011116113WSep 20 · 09:08S. Vyskocil1.7311116101J. Ruzicka2.0013911123LSep 20 · 08:35T. Trnka2.1011811113J. Ruzicka1.67911181LSep 20 · 07:35J. Ruzicka1.9111911962S. Vyskocil1.80811711113LSep 20 · 06:05O. Polak1.401111113J. Ruzicka2.757790WSep 19 · 13:40J. Jr2.50119881J. Ruzicka1.5071111113WSep 19 · 12:05R. Neterda2.206470J. Ruzicka1.611111113LSep 19 · 11:35J. Jr2.63511611123J. Ruzicka1.44118117102WSep 19 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.331111113M. Flesar3.257290LSep 19 · 09:33J. Ruzicka1.6112118101D. Hons2.20101311123
J. Jr10
LSep 19 · 13:40J. Jr2.50119881J. Ruzicka1.5071111113LSep 19 · 12:35M. Flesar2.1011411113J. Jr1.67811291WSep 19 · 11:35J. Jr2.63511611123J. Ruzicka1.44118117102WSep 19 · 10:05R. Neterda1.5731111672J. Jr2.25119911113LSep 16 · 17:44R. Neterda1.671111133J. Jr2.1075110WSep 16 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.80116961J. Jr1.9181111113WSep 16 · 15:35J. Jr1.83115711123L. Vana1.83811119102LSep 16 · 14:05R. Neterda1.911111113J. Jr1.806850LSep 13 · 13:10M. Chmelicek1.806121112113J. Jr1.91111061492WSep 13 · 12:05K. Lahodny1.53781151J. Jr2.3811115113
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