TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145843
Played Sep 18Finished
Artur Grela
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113119117––––
Martin Olejnik
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Martin Olejnik below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Artur Grela at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 45–33 Martin Olejnik Martin Olejnik has won 33 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Grela
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-33 in 78
Grela
Correct
gap of 12 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1922 vs Olejnik 1899
Grela
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 60% vs Olejnik 40%
Grela
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 50% vs Olejnik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +2 · Olejnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Grela) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olejnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.80 / Olejnik 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Grela)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13145843
Grela1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 154 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it97% 58 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it76% 104 of 137
Olejnik1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 43 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela6wins
AwayOlejnik4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGrela leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela100%3 of 3
AwayOlejnik57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela3Olejnik7n = 10Olejnik took 7 of 10
S2Grela7Olejnik3n = 10Grela took 7 of 10
S3Grela6Olejnik4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S4Grela3Olejnik4n = 7Olejnik took 4 of 7
S5Grela3Olejnik1n = 4Grela took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaOlejnikG − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.836.9+2.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaOlejnikBasisWin rate · lifetime636 / 1243 vs 453 / 82351.2%55%636 / 1243 vs 453 / 823Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.80/Olejnik 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 06:55A. Grela331111113M. Olejnik193970
LAug 21 · 10:25A. Grela50611181142M. Olejnik59119208113
WAug 21 · 05:40A. Grela44811311113M. Olejnik4311911842
WAug 14 · 10:25A. Grela51911119113M. Olejnik4111771152
WAug 14 · 03:25A. Grela47134127113M. Olejnik471111101142
WJul 31 · 14:10A. Grela331111113M. Olejnik94410
LJul 31 · 04:55A. Grela215790M. Olejnik331111113
LJul 14 · 09:00A. Grela361361161M. Olejnik4115114113
WJul 14 · 08:05A. Grela43101111113M. Olejnik34127961
LJun 15 · 09:00A. Grela409118121M. Olejnik4311711143
A. Grela10
WSep 18 · 05:40A. Grela1.44311119113J. Kuzmicz2.6311471182WSep 18 · 04:10A. Grela1.9171111113J. Zandecki1.80117361LSep 18 · 03:00A. Grela2.1072100D. Wederlich1.671111123LSep 17 · 13:45P. David2.2010111111113A. Grela1.6112137542WSep 17 · 12:55J. Zandecki1.7351111962A. Grela2.00115911113LSep 17 · 12:05A. Grela2.5011118872J. Kosowski1.50791111113WSep 17 · 10:25A. Grela1.671111113G. Felkel2.103790WSep 17 · 09:40K. Wloczko2.50411461A. Grela1.5011411113LSep 17 · 08:30P. David1.571111113A. Grela2.254780LSep 17 · 07:20A. Grela1.91610110G. Felkel1.801112133
M. Olejnik10
WSep 18 · 06:05M. Olejnik1.801111113J. Kosowski1.915690LSep 18 · 04:30M. Olejnik2.00711871D. Wederlich1.7311311113LSep 18 · 03:45J. Kuzmicz1.80143M. Olejnik1.91120WSep 15 · 14:35M. Olejnik1.73131412113T. Spanik2.0015121071LSep 15 · 12:55M. Olejnik2.00811651M. Jadczyk1.7311611113WSep 15 · 11:40M. Olejnik1.401111113K. Strowski2.759760WSep 15 · 10:00M. Olejnik1.6711711113A. Wiecek2.10711781LSep 15 · 09:00M. Olejnik1.73151061172J. Braun2.001312115113WSep 15 · 07:45T. Spanik2.209680M. Olejnik1.611111113WSep 15 · 06:55A. Wiecek2.10111191152M. Olejnik1.67139119113
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