TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140866
Played Sep 17Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111141311119––
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Away
1.79
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Poliniewicz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
8111141311119––
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 37–38 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Krzysztof Kapik has won 37 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:22What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.79 (51%)
Poliniewicz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-38 in 75
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1652 vs Poliniewicz 1683
Poliniewicz
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 20% vs Poliniewicz 60%
Poliniewicz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 30% vs Poliniewicz 50%
Poliniewicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik -3 · Poliniewicz +1
Kapik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Poliniewicz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (20%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.85 / Poliniewicz 1.79
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Poliniewicz)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13140866
Kapik1.85
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 178 of 391
Down 0–1, comes back25% 53 of 209
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 89
Poliniewicz1.79
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite71% won 320 of 453
Up 2–0, closes it95% 141 of 149
Up 1–0, closes it84% 232 of 277
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik3wins
AwayPoliniewicz7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPoliniewicz leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik0%0 of 3
AwayPoliniewicz57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik3Poliniewicz7n = 10Poliniewicz took 7 of 10
S2Kapik5Poliniewicz5n = 10split evenly
S3Kapik5Poliniewicz5n = 10split evenly
S4Kapik6Poliniewicz4n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S5Kapik1Poliniewicz4n = 5Poliniewicz took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikPoliniewiczK − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.444.3−1.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime1126 / 2118 vs 1235 / 210053.2%58.8%1126 / 2118 vs 1235 / 2100Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PoliniewiczKapik 1.85/Poliniewicz 1.79
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Poliniewicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 09:20K. Kapik4381113113G. Poliniewicz351141191
LSep 16 · 13:50K. Kapik4998111292G. Poliniewicz521111910113
WSep 16 · 08:30K. Kapik528111111113G. Poliniewicz4911913972
LSep 14 · 11:20K. Kapik46111176112G. Poliniewicz49771111133
LAug 17 · 10:30K. Kapik34951281G. Poliniewicz43111110113
LJul 28 · 12:35K. Kapik4467111282G. Poliniewicz451111210113
LJul 23 · 12:10K. Kapik381310691G. Poliniewicz45111211113
WJul 21 · 13:25K. Kapik4171112113G. Poliniewicz351161081
LJun 11 · 14:00K. Kapik33118681G. Poliniewicz4071111113
LJun 11 · 08:45K. Kapik4461191172G. Poliniewicz50118119113
K. Kapik10
WSep 17 · 10:05M. Rutkowski1.754760K. Kapik1.901111113LSep 17 · 08:30K. Kapik1.83911891M. Olbrycht1.8711811113LSep 17 · 06:50K. Kapik1.851081171D. Kosmal1.8512113113LSep 17 · 05:35K. Kapik2.4510790J. Kuzmicz1.491211113WSep 17 · 04:00K. Kapik1.63118116113K. Wisniewski2.0591171152LSep 17 · 03:00K. Kapik1.85111181242P. Jendrzejewski1.791381110113LSep 16 · 13:50G. Poliniewicz1.831111910113K. Kapik1.8398111292LSep 16 · 13:00M. Olbrycht1.94511511113K. Kapik1.7111911782WSep 16 · 12:10K. Kapik1.90119811123P. Jendrzejewski1.80911114102WSep 16 · 10:30K. Kapik1.571111113D. Kosmal2.169630
G. Poliniewicz10
WSep 16 · 13:50G. Poliniewicz1.831111910113K. Kapik1.8398111292LSep 16 · 12:35G. Poliniewicz1.951186141M. Rutkowski1.7071111163WSep 16 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz1.651111710113D. Kosmal2.1066111252WSep 16 · 10:05M. Olbrycht1.97101151162G. Poliniewicz1.69126117113LSep 16 · 09:20G. Poliniewicz1.8631191152P. Jendrzejewski1.80118117113LSep 16 · 08:30G. Poliniewicz1.8511913972K. Kapik1.858111111113WSep 16 · 06:50G. Poliniewicz1.8511611113M. Olbrycht1.85811831WSep 16 · 05:35G. Poliniewicz1.861181111113P. Jendrzejewski1.8081161362LSep 16 · 04:00G. Poliniewicz1.5511511492D. Kosmal2.20711711113LSep 16 · 03:00G. Poliniewicz1.65811511102K. Wisniewski2.03116115123
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