TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13137386
Played Sep 16Finished
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1189111311911711
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
101 points played in total.
Set by set
1189111311911711
H2H Grzegorz Poliniewicz 37–35 Krzysztof Kapik Krzysztof Kapik has won 35 of their 72 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:52What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Kapik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-35 in 72
Poliniewicz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Poliniewicz 1687 vs Kapik 1697
Kapik
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Poliniewicz 40% vs Kapik 60%
Kapik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Poliniewicz 40% vs Kapik 60%
Kapik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Poliniewicz +2 · Kapik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPoliniewicz 1.85 / Kapik 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kapik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13137386
Poliniewicz1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kapik1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePoliniewicz6wins
AwayKapik4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPoliniewicz leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePoliniewicz60%3 of 5
AwayKapik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Poliniewicz5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S2Poliniewicz6Kapik4n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S3Poliniewicz4Kapik6n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S4Poliniewicz4Kapik5n = 9Kapik took 5 of 9
S5Poliniewicz3Kapik1n = 4Poliniewicz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPoliniewiczKapikP − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.840.7+1.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPoliniewiczKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime1238 / 2100 vs 1122 / 210759%53.3%1238 / 2100 vs 1122 / 2107Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikPoliniewicz 1.85/Kapik 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz49771111133K. Kapik46111176112
WAug 17 · 10:30G. Poliniewicz43111110113K. Kapik34951281
WJul 28 · 12:35G. Poliniewicz451111210113K. Kapik4467111282
WJul 23 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz45111211113K. Kapik381310691
LJul 21 · 13:25G. Poliniewicz351161081K. Kapik4171112113
WJun 11 · 14:00G. Poliniewicz4071111113K. Kapik33118681
WJun 11 · 08:45G. Poliniewicz50118119113K. Kapik4461191172
LMay 25 · 10:40G. Poliniewicz521111712112K. Kapik52771114133
LMay 25 · 06:10G. Poliniewicz229760K. Kapik331111113
LApr 26 · 07:05G. Poliniewicz37911981K. Kapik4211911113
G. Poliniewicz10
WSep 16 · 10:05M. Olbrycht1.97101151162G. Poliniewicz1.69126117113LSep 16 · 09:20G. Poliniewicz1.8631191152P. Jendrzejewski1.80118117113WSep 16 · 06:50G. Poliniewicz1.8511611113M. Olbrycht1.85811831WSep 16 · 05:35G. Poliniewicz1.861181111113P. Jendrzejewski1.8081161362LSep 16 · 04:00G. Poliniewicz1.5511511492D. Kosmal2.20711711113LSep 16 · 03:00G. Poliniewicz1.65811511102K. Wisniewski2.03116115123LSep 14 · 14:15M. Rutkowski1.7613611133G. Poliniewicz1.9011115111LSep 14 · 13:25M. Malachowski1.801113107113G. Poliniewicz1.90411121172WSep 14 · 11:20K. Kapik1.80111176112G. Poliniewicz1.85771111133LSep 14 · 10:30K. Glazowski1.58111211113G. Poliniewicz2.14714971
K. Kapik10
WSep 16 · 10:30K. Kapik1.571111113D. Kosmal2.169630LSep 16 · 09:45M. Rutkowski1.831111125113K. Kapik1.8789141162WSep 16 · 07:15K. Kapik1.67111111113K. Wisniewski2.00913581LSep 16 · 06:00M. Olbrycht1.80111211113K. Kapik1.90814771LSep 16 · 04:50P. Jendrzejewski1.8391111123K. Kapik1.831149101WSep 16 · 03:20D. Kosmal2.2011511692K. Kapik1.57711911113WSep 15 · 08:05K. Kapik1.9511711113K. Glazowski1.75711791WSep 15 · 06:25K. Wisniewski1.857740K. Kapik1.801111113LSep 15 · 05:35M. Sklensky1.4951111113K. Kapik2.34115761LSep 14 · 11:20K. Kapik1.80111176112G. Poliniewicz1.85771111133
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