TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138129
Played Sep 16Finished
Michal Olbrycht
Home
1.97
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012116511117611
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Away
1.69
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:26 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Olbrycht to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
90 points played in total.
Set by set
1012116511117611
H2H Michal Olbrycht 5–5 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Poliniewicz beat Olbrycht 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:26What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.69 (54%)
Poliniewicz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olbrycht 1645 vs Poliniewicz 1664
Poliniewicz
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olbrycht 40% vs Poliniewicz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olbrycht 50% vs Poliniewicz 30%
Olbrycht
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Olbrycht +1 · Poliniewicz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Poliniewicz) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlbrycht 1.97 / Poliniewicz 1.69
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Poliniewicz)+0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13138129
Olbrycht1.97
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 85 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back18% 26 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 73
Poliniewicz1.69
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 323 of 456
Up 2–0, closes it95% 140 of 148
Up 1–0, closes it84% 234 of 278
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlbrycht5wins
AwayPoliniewicz5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlbrycht50%2 of 4
AwayPoliniewicz50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olbrycht4Poliniewicz6n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S2Olbrycht6Poliniewicz4n = 10Olbrycht took 6 of 10
S3Olbrycht6Poliniewicz4n = 10Olbrycht took 6 of 10
S4Olbrycht3Poliniewicz6n = 9Poliniewicz took 6 of 9
S5Olbrycht2Poliniewicz1n = 3Olbrycht took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlbrychtPoliniewiczO − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.241.9−2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlbrychtPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 775 vs 1238 / 210247.4%58.9%367 / 775 vs 1238 / 2102Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PoliniewiczOlbrycht 1.97/Poliniewicz 1.69
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Poliniewicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Poliniewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 06:50M. Olbrycht30811831G. Poliniewicz3911611113
WJul 23 · 09:45M. Olbrycht44811113113G. Poliniewicz4511871182
WMay 21 · 04:15M. Olbrycht45411611133G. Poliniewicz48118117112
LApr 20 · 07:10M. Olbrycht4211121271G. Poliniewicz4671414113
WJul 17 · 19:25M. Olbrycht3851111113G. Poliniewicz35116991
WJul 17 · 24:40M. Olbrycht4111118113G. Poliniewicz37991181
LJul 16 · 22:15M. Olbrycht38961671G. Poliniewicz47111114113
WJul 16 · 17:50M. Olbrycht331111113G. Poliniewicz217680
LMar 24 · 18:25M. Olbrycht398615101G. Poliniewicz47111113123
LFeb 24 · 06:00M. Olbrycht4214611652G. Poliniewicz541211911113
M. Olbrycht10
LSep 17 · 13:00M. Rutkowski1.6311911113M. Olbrycht2.05211971WSep 17 · 12:10M. Olbrycht1.98137117113G. Poliniewicz1.68111191162LSep 17 · 10:30M. Olbrycht1.99136561P. Jendrzejewski1.68111111113LSep 17 · 09:45D. Solilo2.25811128113M. Olbrycht1.57119101182WSep 17 · 08:30K. Kapik1.83911891M. Olbrycht1.8711811113LSep 17 · 07:15M. Olbrycht1.99671171P. Jendrzejewski1.6811118113WSep 17 · 06:00D. Kosmal1.708880M. Olbrycht2.001111113LSep 17 · 04:50J. Kuzmicz1.4011911123M. Olbrycht2.608119101WSep 17 · 03:20K. Wisniewski1.9711116972M. Olbrycht1.69881111113WSep 16 · 14:35M. Olbrycht1.97991111113P. Jendrzejewski1.6911118972
G. Poliniewicz10
LSep 17 · 12:10M. Olbrycht1.98137117113G. Poliniewicz1.68111191162WSep 17 · 10:55D. Solilo2.609111151G. Poliniewicz1.4011137113LSep 17 · 09:20K. Kapik1.8581113113G. Poliniewicz1.791141191WSep 16 · 13:50G. Poliniewicz1.831111910113K. Kapik1.8398111292LSep 16 · 12:35G. Poliniewicz1.951186141M. Rutkowski1.7071111163WSep 16 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz1.651111710113D. Kosmal2.1066111252LSep 16 · 09:20G. Poliniewicz1.8631191152P. Jendrzejewski1.80118117113LSep 16 · 08:30G. Poliniewicz1.8511913972K. Kapik1.858111111113WSep 16 · 06:50G. Poliniewicz1.8511611113M. Olbrycht1.85811831WSep 16 · 05:35G. Poliniewicz1.861181111113P. Jendrzejewski1.8081161362
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