TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130350
Played Sep 15Finished
Nazar Danyliuk
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118116––––
Vasily Verbyany
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:15 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Danyliuk above · Vasily Verbyany below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 53 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 62.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Danyliuk 185–73 Vasily Verbyany Vasily Verbyany has won 73 of their 258 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 13h before this match
Verbyany beat Danyliuk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Danyliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
185-73 in 258
Danyliuk
Correct
gap of 112 in 258, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danyliuk 2179 vs Verbyany 2063
Danyliuk
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danyliuk 80% vs Verbyany 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danyliuk 90% vs Verbyany 60%
Danyliuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Danyliuk +1 · Verbyany +3
Verbyany
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Danyliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Verbyany form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanyliuk 1.50 / Verbyany 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Danyliuk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13130350
Danyliuk1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 173 of 274
Up 2–0, closes it94% 85 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it82% 129 of 158
Verbyany2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 93 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDanyliuk7wins
AwayVerbyany3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDanyliuk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanyliuk85.7%6 of 7
AwayVerbyany66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danyliuk7Verbyany3n = 10Danyliuk took 7 of 10
S2Danyliuk5Verbyany5n = 10split evenly
S3Danyliuk6Verbyany4n = 10Danyliuk took 6 of 10
S4Danyliuk5Verbyany1n = 6Danyliuk took 5 of 6
S5Danyliuk2Verbyany2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanyliukVerbyanyD − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.533.0+4.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanyliukVerbyanyBasisWin rate · lifetime597 / 973 vs 336 / 80061.4%42%597 / 973 vs 336 / 800Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukDanyliuk 1.50/Verbyany 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Danyliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 17:04N. Danyliuk3011125112V. Verbyany518101111113
WSep 14 · 14:25N. Danyliuk46111014113V. Verbyany379121241
WSep 13 · 21:45N. Danyliuk341211113V. Verbyany2110830
WSep 11 · 10:55N. Danyliuk50118711133V. Verbyany47511119112
WSep 8 · 07:05N. Danyliuk50981111113V. Verbyany3411117232
LSep 7 · 14:35N. Danyliuk101720V. Verbyany331111113
WSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk331111113V. Verbyany187740
LSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk4781191182V. Verbyany46114119113
WSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk331111113V. Verbyany146440
WSep 3 · 13:55N. Danyliuk4211911113V. Verbyany29511581
N. Danyliuk10
WSep 15 · 04:25N. Danyliuk1.7331111113A. Molochko2.00118961LSep 14 · 17:04V. Verbyany2.208101111113N. Danyliuk1.6111125112WSep 14 · 15:25B. Kohut3.50841111112N. Danyliuk1.28111174133WSep 14 · 14:25N. Danyliuk1.53111014113V. Verbyany2.389121241WSep 14 · 13:25A. Molochko2.001010100N. Danyliuk1.731212123WSep 14 · 12:25N. Danyliuk1.25169612113D. Zeniuk3.751411111062WSep 14 · 01:43D. Zeniuk3.7511890N. Danyliuk1.251311113WSep 14 · 24:45A. Molochko2.101253121N. Danyliuk1.67101111143WSep 13 · 23:15N. Danyliuk1.281111113B. Kohut3.508920WSep 13 · 21:45N. Danyliuk1.531211113V. Verbyany2.3810830
V. Verbyany10
WSep 15 · 06:55V. Verbyany2.2511711123A. Molochko1.578117101WSep 15 · 04:55V. Verbyany1.67119118113D. Zeniuk2.1091121182WSep 14 · 17:04V. Verbyany2.208101111113N. Danyliuk1.6111125112WSep 14 · 15:55D. Zeniuk2.10411491V. Verbyany1.6711911113LSep 14 · 14:25N. Danyliuk1.53111014113V. Verbyany2.389121241WSep 14 · 12:55B. Kohut2.00111312182V. Verbyany1.733111411113WSep 14 · 11:55A. Molochko1.615460V. Verbyany2.201111113LSep 14 · 01:19V. Verbyany3.256920A. Molochko1.331111113WSep 13 · 23:45A. Molochko1.44811511V. Verbyany2.6311811113LSep 13 · 21:45N. Danyliuk1.531211113V. Verbyany2.3810830
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