Vladimir Lopata vs Miroslav Hajek 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Vladimir Lopata

Home

2.38

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

41111710121191416

Miroslav Hajek

Away

1.53

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched: 63.2% is still 63.2%

Graded at full time

Miroslav Hajek to win

63.2%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingVladimir Lopata above · Miroslav Hajek below

Set 1 · 4-11

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 10-12

Set 4 · 11-9

Set 5 · 14-16

Point 105 set 5, 14-16 · our read held Miroslav Hajek at 63.2%

105 points played in total.

H2H Vladimir Lopata 7–14 Miroslav Hajek Vladimir Lopata has won 7 of their 21 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Hajek

Lopata 2.38/Hajek 1.53

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

63.2%

Hajek · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Hajek won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 10:09

63.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533

short by 2.0pp

65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.53 (61%)

Hajek

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

7-14 in 21

Hajek

Correct

gap of 7 in 21, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Lopata 1554 vs Hajek 1625

Hajek

Correct

both rated, 70 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Lopata 20% vs Hajek 80%

Hajek

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Lopata 40% vs Hajek 80%

Hajek

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Lopata -2 · Hajek -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Hajek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Hajek: form 80%, the price implies 65%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsLopata 2.375 / Hajek 1.533

Signal prob.37% / 63%

Edge (Hajek)-2.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeLopata3wins

AwayHajek7wins

5 of 10 to a deciderHajek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeLopatan = 0, below the 3 needed

AwayHajek70%7 of 10

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Lopata0Hajek10n = 10Hajek took 10 of 10

S2Lopata4Hajek6n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10

S3Lopata7Hajek3n = 10Lopata took 7 of 10

S4Lopata4Hajek4n = 8split evenly

S5Lopata2Hajek3n = 5Hajek took 3 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricLopataHajekL − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match37.042.4−5.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricLopataHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 285 vs 361 / 68952.3%52.4%149 / 285 vs 361 / 689Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.7per match

Setka Cup · #13281832

Lopata2.38

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog47% won 16 of 34

Down 0–1, comes back20% 3 of 15

Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13

Hajek1.53

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite55% won 78 of 141

Up 2–0, closes it92% 43 of 47

Up 1–0, closes it76% 63 of 83

Vladimir Lopata vs Miroslav Hajek 2-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Vladimir Lopata vs Miroslav Hajek 2-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.