TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Libor Smazik vs Miroslav Hajek 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012911511––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:03 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLibor Smazik above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 58 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Miroslav Hajek at 61.7%
58 points played in total.
H2H Libor Smazik 14–14 Miroslav Hajek Dead even across their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:0361.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 2.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hajek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-14 in 28
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smazik 1482 vs Hajek 1605
Hajek
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smazik 60% vs Hajek 80%
Hajek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smazik 30% vs Hajek 60%
Hajek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smazik +1 · Hajek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Hajek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hajek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmazik 2.25 / Hajek 1.571
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Hajek)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276836
Smazik2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 22 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Hajek1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 77 of 140
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it75% 61 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmazik4wins
AwayHajek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHajek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmazik66.7%2 of 3
AwayHajek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smazik3Hajek7n = 10Hajek took 7 of 10
S2Smazik4Hajek6n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S3Smazik4Hajek6n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S4Smazik1Hajek5n = 6Hajek took 5 of 6
S5Smazik3Hajek0n = 3Smazik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmazikHajekS − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.436.9−3.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmazikHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 411 vs 358 / 68549.6%52.3%204 / 411 vs 358 / 685Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HajekSmazik 2.25/Hajek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hajek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 12:24L. Smazik2710890M. Hajek341211113
WOct 7 · 09:45L. Smazik501211115113M. Hajek4614781162
LOct 2 · 09:45L. Smazik359101151M. Hajek4311129113
LSep 14 · 09:45L. Smazik238870M. Hajek331111113
LSep 12 · 10:30L. Smazik28125741M. Hajek43101111113
LSep 10 · 12:18L. Smazik157530M. Hajek331111113
LSep 10 · 09:45L. Smazik30611761M. Hajek4111811113
WMay 6 · 12:43L. Smazik331111113M. Hajek175840
WMay 6 · 11:00L. Smazik46127115113M. Hajek45101171162
WApr 27 · 12:48L. Smazik47811611113M. Hajek3411611422
L. Smazik10
WOct 11 · 13:15L. Smazik2.1011137113L. Stoces1.679111151LOct 7 · 12:24M. Hajek1.611211113L. Smazik2.2010890LOct 7 · 11:15V. Lopata1.831111113L. Smazik1.834790WOct 7 · 10:45L. Smazik2.25117611113M. Svitac1.5771111682WOct 7 · 09:45L. Smazik2.251211115113M. Hajek1.5714781162LOct 2 · 12:19L. Smazik1.807740V. Lopata1.911111113LOct 2 · 11:15V. Lopata2.254111111113L. Smazik1.5711137422LOct 2 · 10:45L. Smazik1.9111811462M. Svitac1.80811611113LOct 2 · 09:45L. Smazik2.009101151M. Hajek1.7311129113LSep 30 · 13:08L. Smazik1.67111111101J. Simek2.1013138123
M. Hajek10
WOct 11 · 13:45P. Semrad1.508970M. Hajek2.501111113WOct 8 · 12:58V. Herrmann1.8011211462M. Hajek1.91811611113LOct 8 · 12:00M. Hajek1.5711970V. Herrmann2.251311113WOct 8 · 10:30V. Lopata2.2565130M. Hajek1.571111153WOct 8 · 10:00M. Svitac2.001591161M. Hajek1.7317116113WOct 7 · 12:24M. Hajek1.611211113L. Smazik2.2010890LOct 7 · 11:45M. Hajek1.67671341M. Svitac2.10111111113LOct 7 · 10:15V. Lopata2.38911147113M. Hajek1.53118121192LOct 7 · 09:45L. Smazik2.251211115113M. Hajek1.5714781162WOct 2 · 09:45L. Smazik2.009101151M. Hajek1.7311129113
Upcoming Matches
L. Smazik
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M. Hajek
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